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UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
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AH MP Hernandez vs PereiraMain Card · Middleweight RF KP Font vs PhillipsMain Card · Bantamweight CJ SM Johnson vs MudaerjiMain Card · Flyweight CS JH Smotherman vs HadleyMain Card · Bantamweight DE DP Elkins vs PinedaMain Card · Featherweight AA MN Almabayev vs NicolauPreliminary Card · Flyweight JM BK Matsumoto vs KatonaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight JE TV Edwards vs VidalPreliminary Card · Catchweight ER JP Reed vs PennePreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight MM AA Martinez vs ArdeleanPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight AL RD Lane vs DespaignePreliminary Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE We back Matsumoto over Katona · Bantamweight Our fair value$1.48 PointsBet (AU) pays above fair $1.52
Where to back Matsumoto best price · region · EV vs fair $1.48
US LowVig.ag $1.46 -2%
UK LiveScore Bet $1.44 -3%
EU Everygame $1.50 +1%
AU PointsBet (AU) $1.52 +2%
Consensus56 picks · conf 71/99
Matsumoto 40
16 Katona
TEJDMM pick Matsumoto
How it endsmethod calls · Matsumoto · crowd line
KO/TKO 2 $13.36
Submission 3 $8.91
Decision 13 $2.06
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Matsumoto 17-2 VS 16-4 Katona
5'6" height 5'6"
135 lb weight 136 lb
69" reach 65"
26 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.2 strikes landed / min 4.8
40% striking accuracy 52%
5.0 strikes absorbed / min 4.7
46% striking defence 50%
1.1 takedowns / 15 min 1.9
27% takedown accuracy 34%
57% takedown defence 61%
0.4 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market67% vs 66%
Consensus40 of 56 analysts
Sharpest angleMatsumoto by Decision — 13 of 18 method calls
Recommendation Back Matsumoto @ $1.52 · fair $1.48 +2% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Jean Matsumoto VALUE “my subscribers and I went with Gan matumoto” $1.41
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Jean Matsumoto “I'm actually gonna pick Jean Matsumoto the upand comer to actually win by decision” $1.44
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Jean Matsumoto VALUE “I think Jean Matsumoto will face some adversity in this fight but it's going to be good adversity ... because he's going to learn a lot from a veteran like Brad Katona ... I don't see him getting his first loss against Brad Katona”
KU Kunath picks Jean Matsumoto “I think Jean Matsumoto's probably got him covered”
AD All-Star DFS picks Jean Matsumoto VALUE “bra atona is a guy you have to play for starters he has honestly not not a bad line here plus 200 at 7.2k very reasonable take down upside that's like the biggest thing and neither guy I mean yeah neither guy has any real finishing upside so I think katona's the preferred side” $3.00
HP Hayjive Picks picks Brad Katona VALUE “Brad Brad Katona Plus three and a half point spread I love it” $1.83
MM MMAWeekly.com picks Jean Matsumoto “undefeated Jean Matsumoto takes on the two-time winner of The Ultimate Fighter Brad Katona”
MC MMA Vulture Clips picks Jean Matsumoto VALUE “give me Kylie Kyler Michel Pereirahillips to beat Rob Font and he's sitting at a negative 500”
TP Touch 'Em Up Podcast picks Jean Matsumoto VALUE “I like the money line on Jean Matsumoto at minus 218” $1.46
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Jean Matsumoto VALUE “I'm saying Matsumoto is going to get it over a three hard rounds” $1.47
CA ContraGolpe - Analisa picks Brad Katona VALUE “eu vou colocar aí que o catona vence o combate e vence o combate por decisão”
MN Mayo Media Network picks Brad Katona VALUE “going with Brad Katona at 7.2k”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Matsumoto17-2
W Almakhan Decision · R3 Jun '26
L Basharat Decision · R3 Feb '26
W Johns Decision · R3 Aug '25
L Font Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Katona Decision · R3 Oct '24
Katona16-4
L Almakhan KO/TKO · R1 May '25
L Matsumoto Decision · R3 Oct '24
W Butler Decision · R3 Jun '24
L Armfield Decision · R3 Jan '24
W Gibson Decision · R3 Aug '23