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UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Moisés v Costa Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus8 picks · conf 24/99
Moisés 7
1 Costa
USFWDD pick Moisés
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Moisés 19-9 VS 26-7 Costa
5'9" height 5'10"
155 lb weight 145 lb
70" reach 71"
31 age 29
Orthodox stance Southpaw
2.4 strikes landed / min 3.5
40% striking accuracy 46%
4.1 strikes absorbed / min 2.3
54% striking defence 58%
1.5 takedowns / 15 min 2.5
35% takedown accuracy 35%
55% takedown defence 52%
1.3 submissions / 15 min 1.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Thiago Moisés “I'm on Thiago Moisés I think he probably I Thiago Moisés wins by submission Plus 180... take Thiago Moisés here going to be but uh give me Thiago Moisés um look Thiago Moisés has gotten better with um Thiago Moisés will just be able to Melquizael Costa 7200 um so yeah that's my play here” $1.27
DS Dynes Sports picks Thiago Moisés “I think Thiago Moisés wins ... I like Thiago Moisés Thiago Moisés by submission or caused by an favor over uh Melquizael Costa”
WP We Want Picks picks Thiago Moisés VALUE “I think Thiago Moisés smokes Melquizael Costa likely inside the distance nine thousand dollars I think he's actually the best value at that price point” $91.00
WP We Want Picks picks Thiago Moisés VALUE “I think he's gonna waste zero time striking get it to the ground and then immediately be you know just he's gonna be the better Grappler and immediately work towards that submission” $1.30
SD Santino DeFranco picks Thiago Moisés VALUE “I think thiago's probably going to finish him in round one submission”
DR Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Thiago Moisés “I'm gonna pick Thiago Moisés”
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Melquizael Costa VALUE “I think that there's more value on the newcomer and Costa here even though I I do like Moises to get the job done here” $4.00
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Thiago Moisés VALUE “I'm gonna side with the UFC tested fire that is Thiago Moisés”
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Thiago Moisés VALUE “I'm gonna give it to Thiago to get this one done” $2.30
WP We Want Picks picks Thiago Moisés “I'm gonna go Thiago Moisés here”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Moisés19-9
L Young Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Gordon KO/TKO · R1 May '25
W Ogden Decision · R3 Jan '25
L Klein Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Ramirez KO/TKO · R3 Mar '24
Costa26-7
L Allen Decision · R5 May '26
W Ige KO/TKO · R1 Feb '26
W Charrière KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
W Erosa Decision · R3 May '25
W Rodriguez Decision · R3 Mar '25