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UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Bonfim v McKinney Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus13 picks · conf 34/99
Bonfim 8
5 McKinney
BGUAWD pick Bonfim
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Bonfim 20-4 VS 17-8 McKinney
5'8" height 5'10"
156 lb weight 156 lb
72" reach 74"
30 age 31
Orthodox stance Switch
5.8 strikes landed / min 4.5
54% striking accuracy 50%
3.2 strikes absorbed / min 2.6
70% striking defence 45%
1.1 takedowns / 15 min 3.5
33% takedown accuracy 36%
76% takedown defence 85%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 1.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Ismael Bonfim “give me give me Ismael Bonfim”
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Ismael Bonfim “I gotta go visit my elbow and theme on this one”
DS Dynes Sports picks Terrance McKinney “I like Terrance McKinney here I think he's striking ability I think Terrance McKinney is a round I'd be concerned for Terrance McKinney think Terrance McKinney wins”
WP We Want Picks picks Terrance McKinney VALUE “I do think Terrance McKinney wins this fight and history says if Terrance McKinney wins this fight he will win by stoppage”
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Ismael Bonfim VALUE
BM Bedtime MMA picks Ismael Bonfim “I'm just going to pick Gabrielle Ismael Bonfim to win this fight”
WP We Want Picks picks Terrance McKinney “I'm still going to pick Terrance McKinney because he is the better fighter” $1.79
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Terrance McKinney VALUE “I'm personally on McKinney but I will have my fair share of some Bond theme as well”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Terrance McKinney VALUE “I love bonfim he his striking is fun actually the way they throw punches like I know he doesn't have a lot of Knockouts but he throws punches with Vigor like he's trying to hurt you”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Ismael Bonfim “I gotta go McKinney here I think he's just that much of a better athlete”
DR Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Ismael Bonfim “I think I'm gonna go for him you know what for Ismael Bonfim of Ismael Bonfim is what's going to do it for him”
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Ismael Bonfim VALUE “I'm going to be taking the EVENT_DETAILSian here I'm taking Ismail bonfin to get the job done here” $2.05
Recent form last five, most recent first
Bonfim20-4
L Padilla KO/TKO · R2 Nov '25
L Sadykhov KO/TKO · R1 Feb '25
W Pichel Decision · R3 May '24
L Denis Submission · R1 Jul '23
W McKinney KO/TKO · R2 Jan '23
McKinney17-8
W Nelson KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
L Duncan Submission · R1 Dec '25
W Borshchev Submission · R1 Jun '25
W Hadžović KO/TKO · R1 Feb '25
L Ribovics KO/TKO · R1 May '24