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UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Holland v Oliveira Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus6 picks · conf 18/99
Holland 3
3 Oliveira
MDW pick Holland
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Holland 28-15 VS 22-12-1 Oliveira
6'3" height —
170 lb weight —
81" reach —
33 age 38
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.2 strikes landed / min 3.0
49% striking accuracy 51%
3.2 strikes absorbed / min 2.5
50% striking defence 46%
0.8 takedowns / 15 min 2.4
38% takedown accuracy 38%
54% takedown defence 63%
0.6 submissions / 15 min 0.6
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WP We Want Picks picks Kevin Holland “No direct quote; inferred from card context”
WP We Want Picks picks Alex Oliveira “No direct quote; inferred from card context”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Kevin Holland VALUE “i bet Kevin Holland” $1.31
WP We Want Picks picks Kevin Holland “i do think Kevin Holland wins this fight his hands are fantastic his jiu jitsu is fantastic and he has been spending a lot of Tim Elliotte with quality wrestlers to try to shore up those holes in his wrestling game”
DS Dynes Sports picks Kevin Holland VALUE $1.30
SH Sherdog.com picks Alex Oliveira VALUE “i'm going for Alex Oliveira plus 270” $3.70
MJ MMA JOEY picks Kevin Holland “are you gonna watch Kevin Holland lee diego fight i'm 50 50. probably not but maybe”
MJ MMA JOEY picks Alex Oliveira “Kevin Holland Alex Oliveira doesn't really do much for me”
WP We Want Picks picks Kevin Holland “i got Colby Covington Bryce Mitchell and Kevin Holland in a 3-5 parley”
WP We Want Picks picks Kevin Holland VALUE “i have a three-fight parlay it's Kevin Holland Bryce Mitchell and i'll even it's Colby Covington is a throw run in my three fight parlay”
WP We Want Picks picks Kevin Holland VALUE “i do think Kevin Holland wins this fight” $1.31
WP We Want Picks picks Kevin Holland VALUE “i do think Kevin Holland wins this fight”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Holland28-15
W Brown Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Malott Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Rodriguez Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Luque Submission · R2 Jun '25
W Nelson Decision · R3 Mar '25
Oliveira22-12-1
L Holland KO/TKO · R2 Mar '22
L Price Decision · R3 Oct '21
L Brown Submission · R1 Apr '21
L Rakhmonov Submission · R1 Oct '20
W Sobotta Decision · R3 Jul '20