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Anjos vs MoicanoMain Card · Catchweight
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Mitchell vs BarbozaMain Card · Featherweight
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Holland vs OliveiraMain Card · Welterweight
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Spivac vs HardyMain Card · Heavyweight
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Turner vs MullarkeyPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Rodriguez vs XiaonanPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
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Nurmagomedov vs KelleherEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Spivac v Hardy
Heavyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Spivac 17-6
VS
7-5 Hardy
6'3"
height
6'5"
251 lb
weight
266 lb
78"
reach
81"
31
age
37
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
3.5
strikes landed / min
4.8
49%
striking accuracy
50%
3.7
strikes absorbed / min
3.3
50%
striking defence
55%
4.6
takedowns / 15 min
0.2
65%
takedown accuracy
33%
70%
takedown defence
64%
0.7
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
WP
We Want Picks picks Greg Hardy
“No direct quote; inferred from card context”
WP
We Want Picks picks Serghei Spivac
“No direct quote; inferred from card context”
RU
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Serghei Spivac
“give me Serghei Spivac for the win”
WP
We Want Picks picks Serghei Spivac
“i do think Serghei Spivac wins”
DS
Dynes Sports picks Serghei Spivac VALUE
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Serghei Spivac VALUE
“give me some speed back 8700 i personally think hardy knocks him out but i think you're gonna want to have a piece of this fight”
$88.00
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Greg Hardy VALUE
“i think hardy has a very good chance to go out here and knock out sergey spivak in the first round”
$76.00
HB
Half The Battle picks Greg Hardy
“i mean he beat alan crowder's ass the ben sasali fight was called a no contest so i mean i thought he won both those fights”
HB
Half The Battle picks Serghei Spivac VALUE
“i think he's going to take him with this win here”
MJ
MMA JOEY picks Greg Hardy
“don't care about Serghei Spivac versus Greg Hardy Greg Hardy apparently weighs like cuts from like 315 pounds”
MJ
MMA JOEY picks Serghei Spivac
“don't care about Serghei Spivac versus Greg Hardy Greg Hardy apparently weighs like cuts from like 315 pounds”
WP
We Want Picks picks Serghei Spivac VALUE
“i like Serghei Spivac to win but man is it going to be nerve-wracking on his feet”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Spivac17-6
W
Delija
Feb '26
L
Cortes-Acosta
Jun '25
L
Almeida
Jan '25
W
Tybura
Aug '24
L
Gane
Sep '23
Hardy7-5
L
Spivac
Mar '22
L
Tuivasa
Jul '21
L
Tybura
Dec '20
W
Greene
Oct '20
W
Castro
May '20