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UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · breakdown

UFC Vegas 118: Muhammad vs Bonfim Full Card Predictions & Breakdown

DR drhousemma61% hit
4 weeks ago 10W–8L · +0.8u
Picks, timestamped entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
KS Ketlen Souza v Ariane Carnelossi MONEYLINE WON
“I think she's going to win a close decision here. I think this is going to be back and forth. But I see in the later rounds Ketlen Souza taking over. And uh um I think K I I just think Ketlen Souza is going to win a 2928 decision.”
Line since pick CLV −1%
◆ entry$1.33 close$1.34
entry: BetAnything · best in any region at publish
JC Jeisla Chaves v Yuneisy Duben PROP · KO/TKO LOST
“I'm going to go with Jeisla Chaves by I'll go with KO. I think she'll get it round two. I think she hits Yuneisy Duben with a good one and uh chins her.”
Moneyline since pick CLV −2%
◆ entry$1.29 close$1.32
Chaves’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
JC Jeisla Chaves v Yuneisy Duben MONEYLINE WON
“I'm going to go with Jeisla Chaves by I'll go with KO. I think she'll get it round two. I think she hits Yuneisy Duben with a good one and uh chins her.”
Line since pick CLV −2%
◆ entry$1.29 close$1.32
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
JB Joanderson Brito v Jordan Leavitt MONEYLINE WON
“I think Joanderson Brito got this. He's the favorite I think in this fight. And I think that's for good reason.”
Line since pick CLV −2%
◆ entry$1.58 close$1.61
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
CC Chelsea Chandler v Priscila Cachoeira PROP · DECISION LOST
“You know what? I might go with Chelsea Chelsea Chandler by decision. I think she got this.”
Moneyline since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.87 close$1.87
Chandler’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
CC Chelsea Chandler v Priscila Cachoeira MONEYLINE WON
“I'm gonna go Chelsea Chelsea Chandler. I know I said I didn't want to overthink this, but I think Chelsea Chandler is a She's the favorite.”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.87 close$1.87
entry: BetUS · best in any region at publish
BS Bruno Gustavo da Silva v Édgar Cháirez MONEYLINE LOST
“I'mma go with Bruno Gustavo da Silva, man. You know, something about Édgar Cháirez just tells me like one thing. I don't know if I could trust this guy because he's very inconsistent.”
Line since pick CLV −1%
◆ entry$1.85 close$1.87
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
BS Bruno Gustavo da Silva v Édgar Cháirez PROP · DECISION LOST
“I'm going to go with decision. I think he'll get this done by decision. I think he maybe the wins come at the earlier round. Maybe round three, Édgar Cháirez comes around and starts flowing. But I think this is going to be another close fight and I think Bruno Gustavo da Silva is going to do enough to win the first two.”
Moneyline since pick CLV −1%
◆ entry$1.85 close$1.87
Silva’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
MM Marcus McGhee v John Yannis MONEYLINE WON
“I'm go Marcus McGhee by decision. I think this is a good fight, but I think Marcus McGhee is just going to show levels and experience here.”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.24 close$1.24
entry: BetAnything · best in any region at publish
MM Marcus McGhee v John Yannis PROP · DECISION WON
“I'm go Marcus McGhee by decision. I think this is a good fight, but I think Marcus McGhee is just going to show levels and experience here.”
Moneyline since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.24 close$1.24
McGhee’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
AC Alessandro Costa v Matt Schnell PROP · SUBMISSION LOST
“I'm going Alessandro Costa by submission. I just think he I think he can mix it up with the grappling and he can maybe club some.”
Moneyline since pick CLV −4%
◆ entry$1.17 close$1.22
Costa’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
AC Alessandro Costa v Matt Schnell MONEYLINE WON
“I'm going Alessandro Costa by submission. I just think he I think he can mix it up with the grappling and he can maybe club some. I think he drops Matt Schnell and then he goes in he goes with like a I think he goes in with like a guillotine or an arm triangle and I could see him getting matched now that way. So I'm going go like round I'm going go round two submission.”
Line since pick CLV −4%
◆ entry$1.17 close$1.22
entry: BetAnything · best in any region at publish
IB Iwo Baraniewski v Junior Tafa PROP · KO/TKO WON
“I got Iwo Baraniewski by It's tough. Junior Tafa has a good chin and he can take a beating, but something tells me that I just has enough power to knock him out.”
Moneyline since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.28 close$1.28
Baraniewski’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
SL Santiago Luna v Bryce Mitchell MONEYLINE LOST
“I just think that Santiago Luna is going to win this fight. But Bryce Mitchell is a cool dude. He seems chill and I like watching him. I like watching Bryce Mitchell fight. He's a very entertaining dude in and out of the Octagon. I think Santiago Lunes is making a statement performance here. He's prime. He's yacht longer, a lot younger. He's much more accustomed to being a bandweight than Bryce Mitchell.”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.20 close$2.20
entry: Betway · best in any region at publish
GB Gabriel Bonfim v Belal Muhammad MONEYLINE WON
“This is the reason why I'm picking Gabriel Bonfim here. But Belal Muhammad's striking defense isn't the best and we've seen him struggle with leg kicks. Seen him struggle against taller rangier guys. And Gabriel Bonfim is a very capable striker on the feet. He has good leg kicks. He's a good one two. And one thing I like about him, he's improving fast. Meanwhile, Paul's kind of getting washed out. He's more figured out. He has tons of tape on him because he gets decisions. Gabriel Bonfim knows what he's going against. Bal Belal Muhammad's not some ace in the hole. He's not some unfigurable guy. He pressures you with his boxing one, two, body shot, double leg. That's what he does. That's what he always does. That's how he wins and it works. But against Gabriel Bonfim, who has great takedown defense, who has good knees up the middle, and he has good leg kicks, too. I think Belal Muhammad's wrestling will get neutralized in this fight. And even with the cardio, Belal Muhammad Mohammed pressing forward, I don't think that's going to tire out Gabriel Bonfim. I think the problem with Bonfam's cardio, especially in the Dobby fight, was that he pushed for the finish. He was pressuring too much in the first round, and that's what caused him to get gassed. But when he's on the back foot or when he's being patient and looking for opportunities, he doesn't gas. He actually has good cardio. And this is his first, this is his and he's already trained for a five round fight. You know, he had a main event in his last one. So, he's he's been training. I know we didn't go to the third round, but still I just think that Belal Muhammad, man, he's good, but he doesn't have the finishing threat to threaten Gabriel Bonfim. You know, Joanderson Brito on the other hand, you know, was a very close fight, but he's a long rangy striker with a huge reach advantage and it was way bigger than Gre Gabriel Bonfim. Bonfume still won. NOT_IN_ROSTER_44 very good. He has a good one too and good power and he's a longer rangier boxer. Now, Bal Belal Muhammad is way shorter and not as much in a reach disadvantage, but you look at the legs, bro. Like, I just think that Gabriel Bonfim is the taller dude and I think he gets it in this one.”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.06 close$2.06
entry: Grosvenor · best in any region at publish
GB Gabriel Bonfim v Belal Muhammad PROP · SUBMISSION LOST
“I'm going to go Gabriel Bonfim by submission. He might he'll be the first guy to submit Bal Belal Muhammad. I think that's possible. Bal Belal Muhammad, he shoots very telegraphed takedowns, especially the double legs and all that. That's prime for a Gabriel Bonfim guillotine. Like I just see it and bal man. We just know NOT_IN_ROSTER_51 guillotine NOT_IN_ROSTER_52 man. Like anything's possible bro. If NOT_IN_ROSTER_51 can fix submit NOT_IN_ROSTER_52 I think Gabriel Bonfim can submit balhammed. But I think I'm going to go bonafi by round four submission. I think this goes into later rounds. I think it's competitive. But I see Gabriel Bonfim putting on a master class. Bonfam title one continues, man. And no disrespect for the to the King of Chicago, Belal Muhammad. He's good. But I think he is a product of his time and with these new contenders coming up much more improved, more well-rounded, taller, rangier. I just think Belal Muhammad is at his endear welterweight champ curse. You know how it is. Bomb theme. I think he got the easiest Matt Schnell up in the top five. Like he's a number five ranked guy. I think that's the easiest Matt Schnell up for him in the top five. Look at NOT_IN_ROSTER_45, NOT_IN_ROSTER_46, NOT_IN_ROSTER_47, NOT_IN_ROSTER_48. I just don't see Gabriel Bonfim beating those guys. But Belal Muhammad, I definitely see it. It's an easy matchup for him. I want to say easy, but it is the easiest matchup for him in the top five. Maybe even the top seven. You look at Shawn Brady, very tough fight. NOT_IN_ROSTER_50, very tough fight. Stylistically, man, I think Gabriel Bonfim got what it takes. Belal Muhammad's finishing ability is what leads me to believe. I just don't think Gabriel Bonfim is going to respect him on the feet. He's got good volume boxing and good takedowns, but Bonfam has good takedown defense. You look at his, you got a 76% takedown defense. Bal is very good, but 90%. That's crazy. Belal Muhammad's takedown defense is very elite, but I don't think Gabriel Bonfim wins it by wrestling. I think he wins it by striking. Belal Muhammad gets tired, starts making Starts making mistakes. Not Belal Muhammad gets tired, but Belal Muhammad gets hurt, starts making mistakes, shoots a double takedown. I think I think Bonfam hurts him over knee, shoots a takedown, and I see him notching up a guillotine and submitting. Blah, Belal Muhammad. So, I got Gabriel Bonfim by round four submission.”
Moneyline since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.06 close$2.06
Bonfim’s moneyline — prop lines aren’t quoted
ES Edmen Shahbazyan v Brendan Allen MONEYLINE LOST
“I see Edmen Shahbazyan taking this. But no, I don't What am I saying? I'm really tired. I'm like saying [ __ ] Edmen Shahbazyan is dangerous in the first round. He's got good striking. His body kicks are really good. And that could definitely discourage Brennan Allen. The problem is when he starts grappling, his gas tank goes down in the dumps. Brendan Allen, man, he's very good at finding those takedowns. He's very slick dude. Easily took down NOT_IN_ROSTER_41, who is a hard guy to take down, especially at 185. And you know, he's a good grappler, man. He easily controlled NOT_IN_ROSTER_43 for four minutes. A guy who outgrappled Edmen Shahbazyan Edmen Shahbazyan. I think first round Edmen Shahbazyan is going to be patient. He's going to back up. Brendan Allen's going to pressure forward. I think Brendan Allen gets hit with a few mean ones. Maybe he gets I want to say gets dropped, but I think he gets stung by a shot. Shoots a takedown at Edmen Shahbazyan. He defends and then it stalls out. First round ends and then I see Edmen Shahbazyan considerably slows down and I see Brendan Allen shooting starting landing more of those shots. The one two maybe an elbow in there, especially in the clinch. And I can see Brendan Allen taking the back and uh sinking in a rear naked choke. and getting a round two submission.”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.80 close$2.80
entry: PlayUp · best in any region at publish
IB Iwo Baraniewski v Junior Tafa MONEYLINE WON
“I do think I'm leaning knockout here. I do think he is going to be the guy to break Junior Tafa Junior Tafa's chin. He hits hard. And one thing I like about him too, he's very durable. I think it's the same thing here. And maybe Junior Tafa drops him, but I got Iwo Baraniewski by finish round one.”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.28 close$1.28
entry: Coolbet · best in any region at publish