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Souza vs CarnelossiPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
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McGhee vs YannisPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
BS
ÉC
Silva vs CháirezPreliminary Card · Flyweight
PC
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Cachoeira vs ChandlerPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
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Leavitt vs BritoPreliminary Card · Featherweight
JC
YD
Chaves vs DubenPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
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Souza vs CarnelossiPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Souza
over Carnelossi · Women'S Strawweight
Our fair value$1.24
pays above fair
$1.31
Best prices · Souza
FanDuel · US
$1.31
Betfair Sportsbook · UK
$1.30
Pinnacle · EU
$1.31
TABtouch · AU
$1.30
Where to back Souza
best price · region · EV vs fair $1.24
US
FanDuel
$1.31
+5%
FanDuel
$1.31
+5%
UK
Betfair Sportsbook
$1.30
+4%
Betfair Sportsbook
$1.30
+4%
EU
Pinnacle
$1.31
+5%
Pinnacle
$1.31
+5%
AU
TABtouch
$1.30
+4%
TABtouch
$1.30
+4%
How it endsmethod calls · Souza · crowd line
KO/TKO
6
$14.30
Submission
4
$21.45
Decision
59
$1.45
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Souza 16-6
VS
15-4 Carnelossi
5'3"
height
5'2"
115 lb
weight
115 lb
63"
reach
61"
31
age
33
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
5.1
strikes landed / min
2.9
66%
striking accuracy
39%
3.5
strikes absorbed / min
4.7
56%
striking defence
45%
0.8
takedowns / 15 min
1.4
50%
takedown accuracy
55%
62%
takedown defence
14%
0.8
submissions / 15 min
0.3
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market80% vs 76%
Consensus149 of 164 analysts
Sharpest angleSouza by Decision — 59 of 69 method calls
Recommendation
Back Souza @ $1.31 · fair $1.24
+5% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Ketlen Souza
“I'd have to favor Ketlen Souza in this one, guys. So, the prediction is Ketlen Souza to win a clear and obvious decision with the judges.”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Ketlen Souza
“I'd have to favor Ketlen Souza in this one, guys. So, the prediction is Ketlen Souza to win a clear and obvious decision with the judges.”
TP
The Franchise Player picks Ketlen Souza
“I think Ketlen Souza is a pretty comfortable pick here. Uh, I'm going to play her to win in round three or by decision at minus 135. And then I snagged her money line at - 250 on DK.”
$1.40
The Franchise Player picks Ketlen Souza
“I think Ketlen Souza is a pretty comfortable pick here. Uh, I'm going to play her to win in round three or by decision at minus 135. And then I snagged her money line at - 250 on DK.”
$1.40
P®
Pro Schmo BETS ® picks Ketlen Souza
“It's Ketlen Souza. Why? because Ariane Carnelossi uh Ariane Carnelossi unfortunately um she exposes herself when she's in the guard.”
Pro Schmo BETS ® picks Ketlen Souza
“It's Ketlen Souza. Why? because Ariane Carnelossi uh Ariane Carnelossi unfortunately um she exposes herself when she's in the guard.”
GP
Going Rounds Podcast picks Ketlen Souza
“Ketlen Souza has the advantage minus 255 favorite over Ariane Carnelossi”
$1.39
Going Rounds Podcast picks Ketlen Souza
“Ketlen Souza has the advantage minus 255 favorite over Ariane Carnelossi”
$1.39
JA
JakeGerberMMA picks Ketlen Souza
“I'm going Ketlen Souza by decision.”
JakeGerberMMA picks Ketlen Souza
“I'm going Ketlen Souza by decision.”
TC
The Finz Chats picks Ketlen Souza
“First leg is going to be Ketlen Souza on the money line.”
The Finz Chats picks Ketlen Souza
“First leg is going to be Ketlen Souza on the money line.”
WP
We Want Picks picks Ketlen Souza
“I do think Ketlen Souza wins. I'm very confident Kelyn wins”
We Want Picks picks Ketlen Souza
“I do think Ketlen Souza wins. I'm very confident Kelyn wins”
TB
The Barnhill Brothers picks Ketlen Souza
“So, I am going to take Ketlen Souza by knockout.”
The Barnhill Brothers picks Ketlen Souza
“So, I am going to take Ketlen Souza by knockout.”
TT
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Ketlen Souza VALUE
“The first is Katlyn Ketlen Souza”
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Ketlen Souza VALUE
“The first is Katlyn Ketlen Souza”
BM
Bert MMA picks Ketlen Souza
“I do believe she is almost parlayable.”
Bert MMA picks Ketlen Souza
“I do believe she is almost parlayable.”
CS
Collins Christian Sports picks Ketlen Souza
“We're going with Kelyn. Ketlen Souza just were too good. I believe four four decisions in a row now for Ketlen Souza. It's going to be five.”
Collins Christian Sports picks Ketlen Souza
“We're going with Kelyn. Ketlen Souza just were too good. I believe four four decisions in a row now for Ketlen Souza. It's going to be five.”
JU
JustWinBabyMMA picks Ariane Carnelossi VALUE
“I like Ariane Carnelossi in this one... I got plus 240.”
$3.40
JustWinBabyMMA picks Ariane Carnelossi VALUE
“I like Ariane Carnelossi in this one... I got plus 240.”
$3.40
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Souza16-6
W
Carnelossi
Jun '26
W
Brasil
Feb '26
L
Rodríguez
Aug '25
L
Hill
Feb '25
W
Jauregui
Sep '24
Carnelossi15-4
L
Souza
Jun '26
L
Alencar
Nov '25
W
Rodríguez
May '24
L
Godinez
May '22
W
Nunes
Oct '21