MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
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BM GB Muhammad vs BonfimMain Card · Welterweight BA ES Allen vs ShahbazyanMain Card · Middleweight FZ TN Ziam vs NolanMain Card · Lightweight BM SL Mitchell vs LunaMain Card · Bantamweight IB JT Baraniewski vs TafaMain Card · Light Heavyweight MS AC Schnell vs CostaPreliminary Card · Catchweight MM JY McGhee vs YannisPreliminary Card · Bantamweight BS ÉC Silva vs CháirezPreliminary Card · Flyweight PC CC Cachoeira vs ChandlerPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight JL JB Leavitt vs BritoPreliminary Card · Featherweight JC YD Chaves vs DubenPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight KS AC Souza vs CarnelossiPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Ziam v Nolan Lightweight Our fair value $1.32 best price $1.33 PASS · MARKET AGREES
Where to back Ziam best price · region · EV vs fair $1.32
US BetOnline.ag $1.33 +1%
UK Betfair Sportsbook $1.33 +1%
EU Pinnacle $1.33 +1%
AU Bet Right $1.32 +0%
Consensus207 picks · conf 99/99
Ziam 169
38 Nolan
TMSCHM pick Ziam
How it endsmethod calls · Ziam · crowd line
KO/TKO 17 $3.88
Submission 2 $32.94
Decision 31 $2.13
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Ziam 18-4 VS 10-1 Nolan
6'1" height 6'3"
156 lb weight 155 lb
75" reach 73"
29 age 26
Orthodox stance Southpaw
5.8 strikes landed / min 2.5
43% striking accuracy 52%
2.3 strikes absorbed / min 2.4
61% striking defence 59%
1.2 takedowns / 15 min 1.2
37% takedown accuracy 42%
66% takedown defence 62%
1.9 submissions / 15 min 1.4
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market76% vs 75%
Consensus169 of 207 analysts
Sharpest angleZiam by Decision — 31 of 50 method calls
Recommendation Pass — no edge model agrees with the market PASS
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WT WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Farès Ziam “give me Farès Ziam inside the distance at plus 115” $1.31
MF Matt’Or Fact picks Farès Ziam “I gotta go along with Farès Ziam.”
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Farès Ziam “I do like Farès Ziam. I do think he's I still think he's a sleeper to someday maybe fight for the lightweight title.”
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Tom Nolan “I'll go with Tom Nolan.”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Farès Ziam “in the EVENT_DETAILS, in the middle of the EVENT_DETAILS, it's NOT_IN_ROSTER_23 over Tom Nolan.”
TP The Franchise Player picks Farès Ziam “give me Farès Ziam Xe on the money line at minus 310.” $1.32
P® Pro Schmo BETS ® picks Tom Nolan “just for you free this week, Tom Nolan on the money line” $3.60
NA NarcoCopMMA picks Farès Ziam “The other one I have is uh Farès Ziam decision, decision, Farès Ziam by decision”
GP Going Rounds Podcast picks Farès Ziam “I've got uh Farès Ziam beating Tom Nolan” $1.33
AM Acolyte MMA picks Farès Ziam “I got form via a KO in round two.”
TC The Finz Chats picks Farès Ziam “Fifth parlay piece, the final one is going to be Farès Ziam on the money line.”
WP We Want Picks picks Farès Ziam “I'm going to pick Fasam. I think he's better than Tom Nolan essentially everywhere. So, Farès Ziam is going to be the pick”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Ziam18-4
L Nolan Decision · R3 Jun '26
W Sadykhov KO/TKO · R2 Dec '25
W Davis Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Frevola KO/TKO · R3 Sep '24
W Puelles Decision · R3 Feb '24
Nolan10-1
W Ziam Decision · R3 Jun '26
W Campbell Submission · R1 Sep '25
W Borshchev Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Reyes Decision · R3 Aug '24
W Martinez KO/TKO · R1 May '24