MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
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BM GB Muhammad vs BonfimMain Card · Welterweight BA ES Allen vs ShahbazyanMain Card · Middleweight FZ TN Ziam vs NolanMain Card · Lightweight BM SL Mitchell vs LunaMain Card · Bantamweight IB JT Baraniewski vs TafaMain Card · Light Heavyweight MS AC Schnell vs CostaPreliminary Card · Catchweight MM JY McGhee vs YannisPreliminary Card · Bantamweight BS ÉC Silva vs CháirezPreliminary Card · Flyweight PC CC Cachoeira vs ChandlerPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight JL JB Leavitt vs BritoPreliminary Card · Featherweight JC YD Chaves vs DubenPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight KS AC Souza vs CarnelossiPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE We back Costa over Schnell · Catchweight Our fair value$1.16 Pinnacle pays above fair $1.25
Where to back Costa best price · region · EV vs fair $1.16
US DraftKings $1.24 +6%
UK Paddy Power $1.22 +5%
EU Pinnacle $1.25 +7%
AU Bet Right $1.22 +5%
Consensus182 picks · conf 99/99
Schnell 13
169 Costa
CEJMMF pick Schnell
How it endsmethod calls · Costa · crowd line
KO/TKO 49 $1.57
Submission 17 $4.52
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Schnell 17-10 VS 15-5 Costa
5'8" height 5'4"
126 lb weight 125 lb
70" reach 67"
36 age 30
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.4 strikes landed / min 4.2
39% striking accuracy 48%
4.6 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
55% striking defence 62%
0.6 takedowns / 15 min 2.9
40% takedown accuracy 54%
50% takedown defence 69%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 0.4
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market86% vs 80%
Consensus169 of 182 analysts
Sharpest angleCosta by KO/TKO — 49 of 66 method calls
Recommendation Back Costa @ $1.25 · fair $1.16 +7% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MF Matt’Or Fact picks Alessandro Costa “I've got Alessandro Costa.”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Alessandro Costa “we would have to pick Alessandro Costa to win by KO/TKO.”
TP The Franchise Player picks Alessandro Costa “Uh he should finish him in the first two rounds. ... I'm going to take Alessandro Alessandro Costa by finish atus 360.”
NA NarcoCopMMA picks Alessandro Costa “I'm going to give out sub, just sub in general.”
AM Acolyte MMA picks Alessandro Costa “I'm going go with Alessandro Costa via a KO in round one.”
JA JakeGerberMMA picks Alessandro Costa “Alessandro Costa, he's going to run through Mach Matt Schnell.”
JA JakeGerberMMA picks Matt Schnell “Matt Schnell. I think he knocks him out in stops Matt Schnell within the first two Alessandro Costa”
MT MMA Tugg picks Alessandro Costa “Lock number one, Alessandro Costa, he's not losing.”
TC The Finz Chats picks Alessandro Costa VALUE “I'm going with Alessandro Costa to win this fight by submission. I got a half unit on a subprop plus 460.” $5.60
WP We Want Picks picks Alessandro Costa “Alessandro Costa should knock him out”
TB The Barnhill Brothers picks Alessandro Costa “I think that we're looking at a a TKO victory for Alessandro Costa.”
RX RX picks Alessandro Costa “Give me alandro Alessandro Costa my knock out in first”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Schnell17-10
L Costa KO/TKO · R1 Jun '26
L Morales Submission · R1 Nov '25
W Flick Decision · R3 Apr '25
L Durden Submission · R2 Sep '24
L Erceg KO/TKO · R2 Mar '24
Costa15-5
W Schnell KO/TKO · R1 Jun '26
W Nicoll KO/TKO · R2 Apr '26
L Coria KO/TKO · R3 Sep '25
W Borjas KO/TKO · R2 May '24
L Erceg Decision · R3 Nov '23