MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
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BM GB Muhammad vs BonfimMain Card · Welterweight BA ES Allen vs ShahbazyanMain Card · Middleweight FZ TN Ziam vs NolanMain Card · Lightweight BM SL Mitchell vs LunaMain Card · Bantamweight IB JT Baraniewski vs TafaMain Card · Light Heavyweight MS AC Schnell vs CostaPreliminary Card · Catchweight MM JY McGhee vs YannisPreliminary Card · Bantamweight BS ÉC Silva vs CháirezPreliminary Card · Flyweight PC CC Cachoeira vs ChandlerPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight JL JB Leavitt vs BritoPreliminary Card · Featherweight JC YD Chaves vs DubenPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight KS AC Souza vs CarnelossiPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE We back Muhammad over Bonfim · Welterweight Our fair value$1.73 Pinnacle pays above fair $1.95
Where to back Muhammad best price · region · EV vs fair $1.73
US DraftKings $1.93 +12%
UK Betway $1.91 +10%
EU Pinnacle $1.95 +13%
AU Ladbrokes AU $1.90 +10%
Consensus242 picks · conf 99/99
Muhammad 177
65 Bonfim
CMMBFS pick Muhammad
How it endsmethod calls · Muhammad · crowd line
KO/TKO 8 $17.50
Submission 3 $46.67
Decision 70 $2.00
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Muhammad 24-5 VS 19-1 Bonfim
5'11" height 6'1"
171 lb weight 170 lb
72" reach 72"
37 age 28
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.5 strikes landed / min 5.8
47% striking accuracy 42%
3.5 strikes absorbed / min 4.4
59% striking defence 62%
4.0 takedowns / 15 min 2.9
46% takedown accuracy 75%
77% takedown defence 73%
0.5 submissions / 15 min 1.9
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market58% vs 51%
Consensus177 of 242 analysts
Sharpest angleMuhammad by Decision — 70 of 81 method calls
Recommendation Back Muhammad @ $1.95 · fair $1.73 +13% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MF Matt’Or Fact picks Belal Muhammad “I think Blau Belal Muhammad goes out there and takes a five round decision.”
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Belal Muhammad “I'm one more time being Belal Muhammad by decision.”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Gabriel Bonfim VALUE “my prediction's going to be Gabriel Bonfim to win a 48-47 with the judges.”
JA JakeGerberMMA picks Belal Muhammad “I'm picking Belal Muhammad to win this fight by a decision.”
TP The Franchise Player picks Belal Muhammad “I'm on Belal Muhammad here. ... I got Belal Muhammad at three different money line spots. Minus 142, 35, and minus 120.” $1.70
P® Pro Schmo BETS ® picks Belal Muhammad “Belal Muhammad is great man. I like how he blitzes forward. He can definitely box. We know he's got good wrestling.”
NA NarcoCopMMA picks Belal Muhammad “1925 and 27 to1 rounds three, four, five. I have to play him.”
GP Going Rounds Podcast picks Gabriel Bonfim “So I got Gabriel Bonfim” $2.25
AM Acolyte MMA picks Belal Muhammad “I'm going to go Belal Muhammad by decision.”
OE OE picks Gabriel Bonfim “I like Gabriel Bonfim. I really, really do. ... I'm going to go ahead and stick with below Muhammad. ... below, remember the name Muhammad will be able to take this this win”
RA Ringside Report Network - Combat Sports Authority picks Gabriel Bonfim “I think Gabriel Bonfim might knock out Belal Muhammad. Like he might knock him out.”
JA JakeGerberMMA picks Belal Muhammad “I think Belal Muhammad melts Gabriel Gabriel Bonfim by a decision.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Muhammad24-5
L Bonfim Decision · R5 Jun '26
L Garry Decision · R3 Nov '25
L Maddalena Decision · R5 May '25
W Edwards Decision · R5 Jul '24
W Burns Decision · R5 May '23
Bonfim19-1
W Muhammad Decision · R5 Jun '26
W Brown KO/TKO · R2 Nov '25
W Thompson Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Williams Submission · R2 Feb '25
W Loosa Decision · R3 Jul '24