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Ziam vs NolanMain Card · Lightweight
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Schnell vs CostaPreliminary Card · Catchweight
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McGhee vs YannisPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
BS
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Silva vs CháirezPreliminary Card · Flyweight
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JC
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BEST PRICE
We back
Baraniewski
over Tafa · Light Heavyweight
Our fair value$1.23
pays above fair
$1.26
Best prices · Baraniewski
FanDuel · US
$1.26
Betfair Sportsbook · UK
$1.25
Coolbet · EU
$1.25
PlayUp · AU
$1.25
Where to back Baraniewski
best price · region · EV vs fair $1.23
US
FanDuel
$1.26
+2%
FanDuel
$1.26
+2%
UK
Betfair Sportsbook
$1.25
+1%
Betfair Sportsbook
$1.25
+1%
EU
Coolbet
$1.25
+1%
Coolbet
$1.25
+1%
AU
PlayUp
$1.25
+1%
PlayUp
$1.25
+1%
How it endsmethod calls · Baraniewski · crowd line
KO/TKO
25
$2.91
Submission
33
$2.20
Decision
1
$72.71
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Baraniewski 8-0
VS
7-5 Tafa
6'0"
height
6'3"
206 lb
weight
205 lb
74"
reach
75"
27
age
29
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
—
strikes landed / min
2.1
—
striking accuracy
62%
—
strikes absorbed / min
4.6
—
striking defence
55%
—
takedowns / 15 min
1.8
—
takedown accuracy
49%
—
takedown defence
90%
—
submissions / 15 min
1.3
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market81% vs 79%
Consensus174 of 198 analysts
Sharpest angleBaraniewski by Submission — 33 of 59 method calls
Recommendation
Back Baraniewski @ $1.26 · fair $1.23
+2% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MF
Matt’Or Fact picks Iwo Baraniewski
“I got Iwo Baraniewski all day.”
Matt’Or Fact picks Iwo Baraniewski
“I got Iwo Baraniewski all day.”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Iwo Baraniewski
“My prediction's going to be Iwo Baraniewski with a round one KOTKO, takedown into ground and pound, or knockdown into ground and pound. The prediction is Iwo Baraniewski round one KOTKO.”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Iwo Baraniewski
“My prediction's going to be Iwo Baraniewski with a round one KOTKO, takedown into ground and pound, or knockdown into ground and pound. The prediction is Iwo Baraniewski round one KOTKO.”
UC
UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Iwo Baraniewski
“I think Iwo Baraniewski gonna win. That's what I think.”
UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Iwo Baraniewski
“I think Iwo Baraniewski gonna win. That's what I think.”
TP
The Franchise Player picks Iwo Baraniewski
“And then EO by sub, a couple bonus bets here. Plus 500.”
$6.00
The Franchise Player picks Iwo Baraniewski
“And then EO by sub, a couple bonus bets here. Plus 500.”
$6.00
P®
Pro Schmo BETS ® picks Iwo Baraniewski
“we have Iwo Baraniewski on the money line”
Pro Schmo BETS ® picks Iwo Baraniewski
“we have Iwo Baraniewski on the money line”
NA
NarcoCopMMA picks Iwo Baraniewski
“I'm going sub 23 on Iwo Baraniewski and it's massive. It's 19 to1, 5,000 to one.”
NarcoCopMMA picks Iwo Baraniewski
“I'm going sub 23 on Iwo Baraniewski and it's massive. It's 19 to1, 5,000 to one.”
GP
Going Rounds Podcast picks Iwo Baraniewski
“I think either way, Iwo Baraniewski is the favorite by minus 260”
$1.38
Going Rounds Podcast picks Iwo Baraniewski
“I think either way, Iwo Baraniewski is the favorite by minus 260”
$1.38
AM
Acolyte MMA picks Iwo Baraniewski
“I'm obviously picking Iowa Bernoski via AKO in round one.”
Acolyte MMA picks Iwo Baraniewski
“I'm obviously picking Iowa Bernoski via AKO in round one.”
MT
MMA Tugg picks Iwo Baraniewski
“I think Iwo Baraniewski is going to win the fight, but you got to be careful.”
MMA Tugg picks Iwo Baraniewski
“I think Iwo Baraniewski is going to win the fight, but you got to be careful.”
TC
The Finz Chats picks Iwo Baraniewski VALUE
“I'm going with Iwo Baraniewski to win this fight by submission. I got his subprop plus 400.”
$5.00
The Finz Chats picks Iwo Baraniewski VALUE
“I'm going with Iwo Baraniewski to win this fight by submission. I got his subprop plus 400.”
$5.00
WP
We Want Picks picks Iwo Baraniewski VALUE
“Iwo Baraniewski is going to be the pick”
We Want Picks picks Iwo Baraniewski VALUE
“Iwo Baraniewski is going to be the pick”
TB
The Barnhill Brothers picks Iwo Baraniewski
“Iwo Baraniewski finishes this fight by knockout. I actually like this one as a firstround knockout.”
The Barnhill Brothers picks Iwo Baraniewski
“Iwo Baraniewski finishes this fight by knockout. I actually like this one as a firstround knockout.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Baraniewski8-0
W
Tafa
Jun '26
W
Lane
Mar '26
W
Aslan
Dec '25
Tafa7-5
L
Baraniewski
Jun '26
W
Christian
May '26
L
Elekana
Feb '26
L
Tokkos
Jul '25
W
Sharaf
Oct '24