MMA Prophecy
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UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Vera v Edgar Bantamweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus8 picks · conf 24/99
Vera 4
4 Edgar
UAWW pick Vera
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Vera 23-11-1 VS 23-11-1 Edgar
5'8" height 5'6"
136 lb weight 136 lb
70" reach 68"
33 age 44
Switch stance Orthodox
4.9 strikes landed / min 3.8
46% striking accuracy 40%
3.3 strikes absorbed / min 2.8
52% striking defence 65%
3.0 takedowns / 15 min 2.3
69% takedown accuracy 31%
66% takedown defence 65%
1.7 submissions / 15 min 0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
KU Kunath picks Frankie Edgar VALUE “i think that Frankie Edgar is going to be able to take him down and i think that frankie edgar is going to be able to win a decision in this spot”
WP We Want Picks picks Marlon Vera “i think Marlon Vera is going to win this fight” $89.00
WP We Want Picks picks Frankie Edgar “i like Frankie Edgar in this fight”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Marlon Vera “the alien says Marlon Vera”
AM Artem MMA picks Marlon Vera VALUE “i've got enough city to Marlon Vera by uh some decision”
WP We Want Picks picks Marlon Vera VALUE “i think the play is Marlon Vera all the way”
WP We Want Picks picks Frankie Edgar VALUE “i got Frankie Edgar here” $75.00
WP We Want Picks picks Frankie Edgar “i think Frankie Edgar is he knows how old he is he knows the risk and he's going to come out with a wrestling heavy game plan” $89.00
WI WEIGHING IN picks Frankie Edgar VALUE $2.40
SD Santino DeFranco picks Frankie Edgar VALUE “i think it holds up and i think he gets a win i think he gets i think he's this is not his swan song and i don't think he's getting knocked out if he does lose it's a decision um if you want to play risky with some money throw it down on frankie”
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Marlon Vera VALUE $1.61
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Frankie Edgar VALUE $2.45
Recent form last five, most recent first
Vera23-11-1
L Martínez Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Zahabi Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Figueiredo Decision · R3 Aug '24
L O'Malley Decision · R5 Mar '24
W Munhoz Decision · R3 Aug '23
Edgar23-11-1
L Gutiérrez KO/TKO · R1 Nov '22
L Vera KO/TKO · R3 Nov '21
L Sandhagen KO/TKO · R1 Feb '21
W Munhoz Decision · R5 Aug '20
L Jung KO/TKO · R1 Dec '19