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UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Curtis v Hawes Middleweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus4 picks · conf 10/99
Curtis 2
2 Hawes
WW pick Curtis
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Curtis 32-12 VS 12-6 Hawes
5'10" height 6'0"
170 lb weight 185 lb
76" reach 78"
38 age 37
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.8 strikes landed / min 5.3
51% striking accuracy 59%
6.2 strikes absorbed / min 3.7
52% striking defence 55%
0.0 takedowns / 15 min 2.1
0% takedown accuracy 34%
82% takedown defence 90%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WP We Want Picks picks Phil Hawes VALUE “i think phil hans is probably one of the safest over 9,000 fighters that we have on the card” $95.00
WP We Want Picks picks Chris Curtis “he's fighting chris Chris Curtis Chris Curtis good striker an actual veteran with a ton of fights under his belt”
AM Artem MMA picks Phil Hawes VALUE “he's definitely going to get the job done in my opinion”
WP We Want Picks picks Chris Curtis “i think it's gonna be tough but keep in mind Chris Curtis could potentially stick and move his way to a decision”
WP We Want Picks picks Phil Hawes VALUE “in my mind phil takes him down tko was him in the first round so i played the less less on this” $4.50
WP We Want Picks picks Phil Hawes VALUE “if you want to spend the 9 400 go for it” $95.00
WP We Want Picks picks Chris Curtis “the last i'll talk about real quick is john volante versus Chris Barnett”
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Chris Curtis “the pick for me is definitely phil has” $1.27
KU Kunath picks Phil Hawes “phil halls looks fine i'll have some exposures of him in some of my lineups”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Curtis32-12
L Orolbai Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Griffin Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Kopylov KO/TKO · R3 Jan '25
L Allen Decision · R5 Apr '24
W Barriault Decision · R3 Jan '24
Hawes12-6
L Ferreira KO/TKO · R1 Jan '24
L Aliskerov KO/TKO · R1 May '23
L Dolidze KO/TKO · R1 Oct '22
W Winn KO/TKO · R2 Jun '22
L Curtis KO/TKO · R1 Nov '21