MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
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IA JP Adesanya vs PyferMain Card · Middleweight AG MB Grasso vs BarberMain Card · Women'S Flyweight JE LD Erosa vs DouglasMain Card · Featherweight MA YB Abdul-Malik vs BelgarouiMain Card · Middleweight TM KN McKinney vs NelsonMain Card · Lightweight IB TM Bahamondes vs MusayevPreliminary Card · Lightweight CH LJ Hooper vs Jr.Preliminary Card · Lightweight MT TF Tybura vs FortunePreliminary Card · Heavyweight CO GF O'Neill vs FernandesPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight NS BL Stirling vs LopesPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight RS AY Simón vs YañezPreliminary Card · Bantamweight AT BB Thainara vs BrasilPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight MC NP Chiesa vs PriceMain Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE We back Grasso over Barber · Women'S Flyweight Our fair value$2.49 Unibet pays above fair $2.60
Where to back Grasso best price · region · EV vs fair $2.49
US DraftKings $2.60 +4%
UK Virgin Bet $2.60 +4%
EU NordicBet $2.60 +4%
AU Unibet $2.60 +4%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $2.63
Consensus168 picks · conf 99/99
Grasso 76
92 Barber
MBUPBW pick Grasso
How it endsmethod calls · Grasso · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $34.84
Submission 2 $17.42
Decision 11 $3.17
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Grasso 16-5-1 VS 15-3 Barber
5'5" height 5'5"
126 lb weight 125 lb
66" reach 65"
32 age 28
Orthodox stance Switch
4.2 strikes landed / min 3.9
41% striking accuracy 38%
3.7 strikes absorbed / min 2.2
58% striking defence 49%
0.4 takedowns / 15 min 0.6
40% takedown accuracy 45%
54% takedown defence 61%
0.7 submissions / 15 min 0.8
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market40% vs 38%
Consensus76 of 168 analysts
Sharpest angleGrasso by Decision — 11 of 14 method calls
Recommendation Back Grasso @ $2.60 · fair $2.49 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
IM IJB MMA picks Alexa Grasso “she's going to win that by decision.”
CM CornerTalk MMA picks Alexa Grasso “I think Alexa Grasso gets it done again... I'NOT_IN_ROSTER_103 not even nervous to say like Alexa Grasso is is my pick.”
MM MASKED MMA picks Alexa Grasso VALUE “I'm actually going to go with Alexa Graco here. I think this is a decent underdog.”
DS DFS Army - Daily Fantasy Sports picks Maycee Barber “I'm going to go with Maycee Barber.”
PI PibbleMMA picks Maycee Barber VALUE “I'm going to pick Maycee Barber.”
CE CeilingMMA picks Maycee Barber VALUE “I'm going to go Macy Maycee Barber by decision.”
BN By The Numbers picks Alexa Grasso “I really wanted to go Alexa Grasso Thin in this rematch... But I think Bruna Brasil may get this done”
DM DMan&MariPulls picks Maycee Barber “I just got to see Maycee Barber winning this one”
AN AntUFC picks Maycee Barber VALUE “I do give Alexa Grac a little bit of a stand up advantage here... But, you know, NOT_IN_ROSTER_30 does expose a lot of WMA fighters grappling, but maybe Maycee Barber can make some takedowns and just win based off ground and pound. That's what I'm thinking by decision”
CO CouchWarrior1 picks Alexa Grasso “I'm going to go with Alexa Grasso uh by round round one possibly round two uh submission.”
CO CouchWarrior1 picks Maycee Barber “she'll win herself a good old-fashioned 2928 victory.”
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Alexa Grasso VALUE “give me Macy Barber via decision”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Grasso16-5-1
W Barber KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
L Silva Decision · R3 May '25
L Shevchenko Decision · R5 Sep '24
W Shevchenko Submission · R4 Mar '23
W Araújo Decision · R5 Oct '22
Barber15-3
L Grasso KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
W Silva Decision · R3 Dec '25
W Cerminara Decision · R3 Mar '24
W Ribas KO/TKO · R2 Jun '23
W Lee Decision · R3 Mar '23