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UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
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IA JP Adesanya vs PyferMain Card · Middleweight AG MB Grasso vs BarberMain Card · Women'S Flyweight JE LD Erosa vs DouglasMain Card · Featherweight MA YB Abdul-Malik vs BelgarouiMain Card · Middleweight TM KN McKinney vs NelsonMain Card · Lightweight IB TM Bahamondes vs MusayevPreliminary Card · Lightweight CH LJ Hooper vs Jr.Preliminary Card · Lightweight MT TF Tybura vs FortunePreliminary Card · Heavyweight CO GF O'Neill vs FernandesPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight NS BL Stirling vs LopesPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight RS AY Simón vs YañezPreliminary Card · Bantamweight AT BB Thainara vs BrasilPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight MC NP Chiesa vs PriceMain Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE We back Erosa over Douglas · Featherweight Our fair value$3.47 NordicBet pays above fair $3.85
Where to back Erosa best price · region · EV vs fair $3.47
US BetOnline.ag $3.85 +11%
UK Unibet (UK) $3.75 +8%
EU NordicBet $3.85 +11%
AU Neds $3.75 +8%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $3.85
Consensus149 picks · conf 99/99
Erosa 53
96 Douglas
GPBAPC pick Erosa
How it endsmethod calls · Erosa · crowd line
KO/TKO 2 $6.93
Decision 2 $6.93
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Erosa 0-0 VS 13-5 Douglas
6'1" height 5'10"
145 lb weight 145 lb
74" reach 72"
36 age 31
Southpaw stance Orthodox
6.2 strikes landed / min —
48% striking accuracy —
6.3 strikes absorbed / min —
48% striking defence —
1.7 takedowns / 15 min —
48% takedown accuracy —
58% takedown defence —
0.8 submissions / 15 min —
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market29% vs 26%
Consensus53 of 149 analysts
Sharpest angleErosa by KO/TKO — 2 of 4 method calls
Recommendation Back Erosa @ $3.85 · fair $3.47 +11% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
IM IJB MMA picks Lerryan Douglas “I think uh Lerryan Douglas is going to KO Julian Rosa.”
CM CornerTalk MMA picks Lerryan Douglas “My pick is uh Lerryan Douglas, though. I think Lerryan Douglas gets it done by KO or decision.”
MM MASKED MMA picks Lerryan Douglas “I think he's going to land an uppercut and KO Julian Erosa.”
PI PibbleMMA picks Lerryan Douglas VALUE “Lerryan Douglas is a borderline lock.”
DM DMan&MariPulls picks Lerryan Douglas “We're rolling with that coming out of Brazil.”
AN AntUFC picks Lerryan Douglas VALUE “I'm going to go with Lerryan Douglas just based off that knockout power in round one. And I do believe that he will get a knockout in round one”
CO CouchWarrior1 picks Lerryan Douglas “I'm going for Lerryan Douglas.”
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Lerryan Douglas VALUE “I'll give Lerryan Douglas round number two knockout”
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Julian Erosa VALUE “Macy Barber via decision”
US Uselyis picks Julian Erosa VALUE $3.50
PT Premier TV picks Julian Erosa “I kind of see a sub for Julian Erosa”
DY DylanMMA picks Julian Erosa “I'll say by gritty decision.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Erosa0-0
L Douglas KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
L Costa Decision · R3 May '25
W Elkins KO/TKO · R1 Apr '25
W Rodriguez Submission · R1 Jul '24
W Ramos Submission · R1 Mar '24
Douglas13-5
W Erosa KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26