MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
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IA JP Adesanya vs PyferMain Card · Middleweight AG MB Grasso vs BarberMain Card · Women'S Flyweight JE LD Erosa vs DouglasMain Card · Featherweight MA YB Abdul-Malik vs BelgarouiMain Card · Middleweight TM KN McKinney vs NelsonMain Card · Lightweight IB TM Bahamondes vs MusayevPreliminary Card · Lightweight CH LJ Hooper vs Jr.Preliminary Card · Lightweight MT TF Tybura vs FortunePreliminary Card · Heavyweight CO GF O'Neill vs FernandesPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight NS BL Stirling vs LopesPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight RS AY Simón vs YañezPreliminary Card · Bantamweight AT BB Thainara vs BrasilPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight MC NP Chiesa vs PriceMain Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE We back Simón over Yañez · Bantamweight Our fair value$1.54 LeoVegas (SE) pays above fair $1.70
Where to back Simón best price · region · EV vs fair $1.54
US BetAnything $1.59 +3%
UK Virgin Bet $1.58 +3%
EU LeoVegas (SE) $1.70 +11%
AU Unibet $1.58 +3%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.59
Consensus137 picks · conf 99/99
Simón 102
35 Yañez
PAPBUB pick Simón
How it endsmethod calls · Simón · crowd line
KO/TKO 3 $12.30
Decision 21 $1.76
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Simón 20-6 VS 17-5 Yañez
— height —
— weight —
— reach —
33 age 32
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.0 strikes landed / min 6.5
43% striking accuracy 41%
3.8 strikes absorbed / min 5.8
61% striking defence 57%
5.2 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
44% takedown accuracy 0%
75% takedown defence 100%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market65% vs 59%
Consensus102 of 137 analysts
Sharpest angleSimón by Decision — 21 of 24 method calls
Recommendation Back Simón @ $1.70 · fair $1.54 +11% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
IM IJB MMA picks Ricky Simón “stylistically like it's uh it's a match that that favors Ricky Simón quite heavily.”
CM CornerTalk MMA picks Ricky Simón “Realistically, he probably wins decision”
MM MASKED MMA picks Adrian Yañez “I'm going to lean Adrian Yañez because even though his calf kick defense is certainly something to be worried about here, um I think he's always shown really good takedown defense.”
DS DFS Army - Daily Fantasy Sports picks Ricky Simón “Ricky Simón's wrestling is going to win out.”
PI PibbleMMA picks Adrian Yañez VALUE
PI PibbleMMA picks Ricky Simón VALUE “Ricky Simón all day.”
CE CeilingMMA picks Adrian Yañez VALUE “I'm going to go with Israel Adrian Yañez by round five TKO.”
CE CeilingMMA picks Ricky Simón VALUE “I'm going to say Ricky Simón wins the decision here. Probably like 29 28.”
BN By The Numbers picks Ricky Simón VALUE “I'm going to go with a Ricky Simón. Oh my goodness... I think he'll outgrapple him and and out strike him. So, I'm going to say a round two knockout”
CO CouchWarrior1 picks Ricky Simón “I'm going to go Ricky Simón.”
NA NarcoCopMMA picks Adrian Yañez VALUE “I'm going to go with Adrian Yañez decision”
US Uselyis picks Ricky Simón VALUE $1.60
Recent form last five, most recent first
Simón20-6
L Barcelos Decision · R3 Nov '25
W Smotherman Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Basharat KO/TKO · R1 Feb '25
L Oliveira Decision · R3 Jun '24
L Bautista Decision · R3 Jan '24
Yañez17-5
L Marcos Decision · R3 Dec '24
W Salvador KO/TKO · R1 May '24
L Martinez KO/TKO · R2 Oct '23
L Font KO/TKO · R1 Apr '23
W Kelley KO/TKO · R1 Jun '22