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Chiesa vs PriceMain Card · Welterweight
JP
Adesanya vs PyferMain Card · Middleweight
AG
MB
Grasso vs BarberMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
JE
LD
Erosa vs DouglasMain Card · Featherweight
MA
YB
Abdul-Malik vs BelgarouiMain Card · Middleweight
TM
KN
McKinney vs NelsonMain Card · Lightweight
IB
TM
Bahamondes vs MusayevPreliminary Card · Lightweight
CH
LJ
Hooper vs Jr.Preliminary Card · Lightweight
MT
TF
Tybura vs FortunePreliminary Card · Heavyweight
CO
GF
O'Neill vs FernandesPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
NS
BL
Stirling vs LopesPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
RS
AY
Simón vs YañezPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
AT
BB
Thainara vs BrasilPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
MC
NP
Chiesa vs PriceMain Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Chiesa v Price
Welterweight
Our fair value
$1.15
best price $1.15
PASS · MARKET AGREES
Where to back Chiesa
best price · region · EV vs fair $1.15
US
DraftKings
$1.12
-2%
UK
LiveScore Bet
$1.11
-3%
LiveScore Bet
$1.11
-3%
EU
LeoVegas (SE)
$1.15
+0%
LeoVegas (SE)
$1.15
+0%
AU
PlayUp
$1.11
-3%
PM
PM
Polymarket crowd exchange
$1.15
How it endsmethod calls · Chiesa · crowd line
KO/TKO
7
$4.58
Submission
17
$1.89
Decision
4
$8.02
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Chiesa 19-7
VS
16-10 Price
6'1"
height
6'0"
171 lb
weight
171 lb
76"
reach
76"
38
age
36
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
1.9
strikes landed / min
5.2
40%
striking accuracy
42%
1.7
strikes absorbed / min
5.6
53%
striking defence
48%
3.4
takedowns / 15 min
1.0
51%
takedown accuracy
29%
60%
takedown defence
52%
1.0
submissions / 15 min
0.7
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market87% vs 87%
Consensus112 of 127 analysts
Sharpest angleChiesa by Submission — 17 of 28 method calls
Recommendation
Pass — no edge model agrees with the market
PASS
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
CM
CornerTalk MMA picks Niko Price
“I'NOT_IN_ROSTER_103 gonna pick Niko Price. I think Niko Price is just more dangerous on feet.”
MM
MASKED MMA picks Michael Chiesa
“Michael Chiesa is going to land some awkward jabs on him.”
CM
Crashout MMA picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“Michael Chiesa is think he's going to KO Niko Price.”
IM
Industry Plant MMA picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“I got Michael Chiesa as lock of the card ... Michael Chiesa should just take him down and easily sub him. I I got Michael Chiesa by submission. And this is easily lock of the card.”
DS
DFS Army - Daily Fantasy Sports picks Michael Chiesa
“I'm picking Michael Chiesa because I don't I'm clearly picking Michael Chiesa uh you know uh that he's losing lately. Um, Michael Chiesa I think Michael Chiesa's going to win”
PI
PibbleMMA picks Niko Price VALUE
“I need Niko Price to win.”
CE
CeilingMMA picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“I'm going to go with Michael Chiesa by decision.”
BN
By The Numbers picks Michael Chiesa
“Michael Chiesa's really tough. Almost put Duncan. Michael Chiesa's hard to beat. ... Knocked out Niko Price.”
CO
CouchWarrior1 picks Michael Chiesa
“I believe that he's going to win this first round submission.”
CR
Capitán Rafucho picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“I'll give Michael Chiesa submission round number two against Niko Price”
NA
NarcoCopMMA picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“Give me Michael Chiesa to win by KO”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Chiesa19-7
W
Price
Mar '26
W
McGee
Jun '25
W
Griffin
Dec '24
W
Ferguson
Aug '24
L
Holland
Jul '23
Price16-10
L
Chiesa
Mar '26
L
Veretennikov
Feb '26
L
Smith
Jun '25
L
Gorimbo
Oct '24
W
Morono
Jun '24