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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
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MM GB Morales vs BurnsFight Card · Welterweight MS SY Santos vs YusuffFight Card · Lightweight NR DS Ruziboev vs StoltzfusFight Card · Middleweight MC JE Costa vs ErosaFight Card · Featherweight GG MC Green vs CamiloPreliminary Card · Lightweight JG TM Gordon vs MoisésPreliminary Card · Lightweight LS TL Santos vs LisboaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight DG ER Gomes vs ReedPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight PH CH Hyun-sung vs HernandezPreliminary Card · Flyweight TP LP Pennington vs PinheiroPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight YV CM Valle vs MatthewsPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Stoltzfus over Ruziboev · Middleweight Our fair value$4.05 Betway pays above fair $5.25
Where to back Stoltzfus best price · region · EV vs fair $4.05
US Bally Bet $5.20 +28%
UK Betway $5.25 +30%
EU Unibet (EU) $5.20 +28%
AU Unibet $5.20 +28%
Consensus52 picks · conf 70/99
Ruziboev 36
16 Stoltzfus
MHOCFT pick Ruziboev
How it endsmethod calls · Stoltzfus · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $20.23
Submission 1 $20.23
Decision 3 $6.74
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Ruziboev 36-9-2 VS 16-8 Stoltzfus
6'5" height 6'0"
185 lb weight 185 lb
76" reach 75"
32 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.5 strikes landed / min 3.6
43% striking accuracy 44%
4.6 strikes absorbed / min 2.5
49% striking defence 50%
0.8 takedowns / 15 min 1.5
100% takedown accuracy 71%
0% takedown defence 52%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.9
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market25% vs 19%
Consensus16 of 52 analysts
Sharpest angleStoltzfus by Decision — 3 of 5 method calls
Recommendation Back Stoltzfus @ $5.25 · fair $4.05 +30% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
HB Half The Battle picks Dustin Stoltzfus VALUE “I think Dustin Stoltzfus at plus 240 is not a bad pick at all.”
VI VinceMMA picks Dustin Stoltzfus VALUE “I'm gonna go Nurolan Rousey Boy by round one KO, maybe round two KO.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Dustin Stoltzfus “I'm going hard. [Dustin Stoltzfus] all day long.”
MR MMA ROACH picks Dustin Stoltzfus “Sultan Rousob, I'm gonna pick him to win.”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Dustin Stoltzfus “I think that he handles Dustin Stoultz Fouse in this fight.” $1.43
BE BetSam picks Dustin Stoltzfus “I'm expecting them to go out here, put on a show, put on a finish, and uh put Dustin Stoltzfus out.”
P® Pro Schmo BETS ® picks Nursulton Ruziboev “Dustin Stoltzfus. I like this guy as an underdog... But those hammers, brother, that's something that Nursulton Ruziboev specializes in... The ground impound, man, on Dustin Stoltzfus.”
CM Coty MMA picks Nursulton Ruziboev VALUE “I'll pick Rous Boy by knockout”
CM Coty MMA picks Dustin Stoltzfus VALUE “Give me Dustin” $3.65
MT MMA TODAY picks Nursulton Ruziboev “Nursulton Ruziboev is gonna win.” $1.32
MT MMA TODAY picks Dustin Stoltzfus “Sultan Rousay. Definitely going to win that fight.” $3.40
GM GC MMA picks Nursulton Ruziboev “I'm going to go Nursulton Ruziboev.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Ruziboev36-9-2
W Pulyaev Submission · R1 Jun '26
W Stoltzfus Decision · R3 May '25
W McConico KO/TKO · R2 Feb '25
L Buckley Decision · R3 May '24
W Dumas KO/TKO · R1 Mar '24
Stoltzfus16-8
L Gastelum Decision · R3 Sep '25
L Ruziboev Decision · R3 May '25
W Barriault KO/TKO · R1 Nov '24
L Ferreira KO/TKO · R1 Jun '24
W Soriano Submission · R2 Dec '23