MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
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MM GB Morales vs BurnsFight Card · Welterweight MS SY Santos vs YusuffFight Card · Lightweight NR DS Ruziboev vs StoltzfusFight Card · Middleweight MC JE Costa vs ErosaFight Card · Featherweight GG MC Green vs CamiloPreliminary Card · Lightweight JG TM Gordon vs MoisésPreliminary Card · Lightweight LS TL Santos vs LisboaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight DG ER Gomes vs ReedPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight PH CH Hyun-sung vs HernandezPreliminary Card · Flyweight TP LP Pennington vs PinheiroPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight YV CM Valle vs MatthewsPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Gordon v Moisés Lightweight Our fair value $1.88 best price $1.85 PASS · MARKET AGREES
Where to back Gordon best price · region · EV vs fair $1.88
US BetMGM $1.83 -3%
UK Betway $1.80 -4%
EU Coolbet $1.85 -2%
AU Ladbrokes AU $1.83 -3%
Consensus63 picks · conf 73/99
Gordon 33
30 Moisés
MHCPTC pick Gordon
How it endsmethod calls · Gordon · crowd line
KO/TKO 2 $12.22
Decision 11 $2.22
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Gordon 21-8 VS 19-9 Moisés
5'9" height 5'9"
156 lb weight 155 lb
68" reach 70"
37 age 31
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.9 strikes landed / min 2.4
48% striking accuracy 40%
2.0 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
62% striking defence 54%
2.6 takedowns / 15 min 1.5
61% takedown accuracy 35%
81% takedown defence 55%
1.2 submissions / 15 min 1.3
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market53% vs 54%
Consensus33 of 63 analysts
Sharpest angleGordon by Decision — 11 of 13 method calls
Recommendation Pass — no edge model agrees with the market PASS
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
HB Half The Battle picks Thiago Moisés “I'll go Thiago Moisés then.”
CN Correlation Nation picks Thiago Moisés “Yeah, we're taking Thiago Moisés. ... I just think Thiago Moisés wins this”
VI VinceMMA picks Jared Gordon “Kamo by decision. Jared Gordon versus Moises. Jared Gordon has been [ __ ] in I think Jared Gordon is is really good have the motivation if Jared Gordon late finish for Jared Gordon. Big power finish for Jared Gordon. Yadier Del Valle, I on the feet. Thiago Moisés”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Jared Gordon “I'm going to go Jared Gordon.”
MR MMA ROACH picks Jared Gordon “I'm going to pick Jared Gordon to win this.”
SL SUPER LUTAS picks Jared Gordon VALUE “Jared Gordon e Thiago Moisés fechando o card de preliminar fez o Lev brasileiro, busca a segunda vitória seguida”
JN JNapsMMAshorts picks Jared Gordon “I got Jared Gordon.”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Thiago Moisés VALUE “I'm going to say Thiago Moisés getting his hand raised.” $2.02
P® Pro Schmo BETS ® picks Thiago Moisés VALUE “This could be Thiago Moyes is overdue knockout... Jared Gordon is chinny and this could be Thiago Moyes is overdue knockout.”
CM Coty MMA picks Thiago Moisés “it's like a coin toss, man. I do lean Jared Gordon”
CM Coty MMA picks Jared Gordon “Give me Gordon by decision”
MT MMA TODAY picks Jared Gordon “I have Jared Gordon winning just because I mean recently you could look back at all the decisions he's lost and you could argue he actually won them.” $1.79
Recent form last five, most recent first
Gordon21-8
L Miller Submission · R1 May '26
L García KO/TKO · R3 Sep '25
W Moisés KO/TKO · R1 May '25
L Haqparast Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Madsen KO/TKO · R1 Nov '23
Moisés19-9
L Young Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Gordon KO/TKO · R1 May '25
W Ogden Decision · R3 Jan '25
L Klein Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Ramirez KO/TKO · R3 Mar '24