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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
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MM GB Morales vs BurnsFight Card · Welterweight MS SY Santos vs YusuffFight Card · Lightweight NR DS Ruziboev vs StoltzfusFight Card · Middleweight MC JE Costa vs ErosaFight Card · Featherweight GG MC Green vs CamiloPreliminary Card · Lightweight JG TM Gordon vs MoisésPreliminary Card · Lightweight LS TL Santos vs LisboaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight DG ER Gomes vs ReedPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight PH CH Hyun-sung vs HernandezPreliminary Card · Flyweight TP LP Pennington vs PinheiroPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight YV CM Valle vs MatthewsPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Gomes over Reed · Women'S Strawweight Our fair value$1.16 Ladbrokes AU pays above fair $1.18
Where to back Gomes best price · region · EV vs fair $1.16
US BetRivers $1.17 +1%
UK LiveScore Bet $1.17 +1%
EU Unibet (EU) $1.17 +1%
AU Ladbrokes AU $1.18 +2%
Consensus47 picks · conf 67/99
Gomes 43
4 Reed
MHCBSC pick Gomes
How it endsmethod calls · Gomes · crowd line
KO/TKO 26 $2.05
Submission 2 $26.69
Decision 18 $2.97
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Gomes 10-3 VS 8-4 Reed
5'2" height 5'3"
115 lb weight 115 lb
63" reach 63"
26 age 33
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.5 strikes landed / min 3.5
50% striking accuracy 53%
3.1 strikes absorbed / min 3.1
51% striking defence 53%
0.7 takedowns / 15 min 0.5
25% takedown accuracy 60%
67% takedown defence 56%
0.9 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market86% vs 85%
Consensus43 of 47 analysts
Sharpest angleGomes by KO/TKO — 26 of 46 method calls
Recommendation Back Gomes @ $1.18 · fair $1.16 +2% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
HB Half The Battle picks Denise Gomes “Give me the more intimidating imposing fighter here. Denise Gomes looks like she'd steal my lunch money. I think just off the eye test, you can go with Denise Gomes.”
VI VinceMMA picks Denise Gomes VALUE “I'm going to go Denise Gomes by unanimous decision.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Denise Gomes “I think Denise Gomes probably gonna knock her out.”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Denise Gomes “The pick here is Denise Gomes.” $1.14
BE BetSam picks Denise Gomes VALUE “I think Denise Gomes is going to steamroll. So, I think she is safe to parlay.”
BE BetSam picks Elise Reed “against Denise Gomes, who I think is going to come in here and be a marauder, I don't think she's going to like the pressure.”
P® Pro Schmo BETS ® picks Denise Gomes VALUE “Denise Gomes could potentially knock her out here... She's on a fouright win streak. It's here where she finally gets a ranking.”
MT MMA TODAY picks Denise Gomes “I'll take Denise to to win this.” $1.17
SN SnorkelMMA picks Denise Gomes “I'm going to be going Denise Gomes. She's the minus 500 favorite.” $1.20
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Denise Gomes “I mean, I got to go with Gomes. I have to. She's more powerful. She's more menacing, physically imposing.” $1.14
WP We Want Picks picks Denise Gomes VALUE “I do think she loses this fight”
CO Cage Side Originals picks Denise Gomes “we're going to chuck her on the money line. She'll win.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Gomes10-3
W Pennington Decision · R3 Nov '25
W Reed KO/TKO · R2 May '25
W Kowalkiewicz Decision · R3 Nov '24
W Moura Decision · R3 Jun '24
L Hill Decision · R3 Nov '23
Reed8-4
L Gomes KO/TKO · R2 May '25
W Penne Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Godinez Submission · R2 Sep '23
W Frey Decision · R3 Jun '23
L Lookboonmee Submission · R2 Feb '23