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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
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MM GB Morales vs BurnsFight Card · Welterweight MS SY Santos vs YusuffFight Card · Lightweight NR DS Ruziboev vs StoltzfusFight Card · Middleweight MC JE Costa vs ErosaFight Card · Featherweight GG MC Green vs CamiloPreliminary Card · Lightweight JG TM Gordon vs MoisésPreliminary Card · Lightweight LS TL Santos vs LisboaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight DG ER Gomes vs ReedPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight PH CH Hyun-sung vs HernandezPreliminary Card · Flyweight TP LP Pennington vs PinheiroPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight YV CM Valle vs MatthewsPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Lisboa over Santos · Women'S Bantamweight Our fair value$2.45 BetOnline.ag pays above fair $2.61
Where to back Lisboa best price · region · EV vs fair $2.45
US BetOnline.ag $2.61 +6%
UK Paddy Power $2.50 +2%
EU Betsson $2.50 +2%
AU Ladbrokes AU $2.50 +2%
Consensus52 picks · conf 70/99
Santos 28
24 Lisboa
COSMBK pick Santos
How it endsmethod calls · Lisboa · crowd line
Decision 9 $2.45
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Santos 10-2 VS 7-3 Lisboa
5'6" height 5'7"
136 lb weight 135 lb
67" reach 67"
26 age 35
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.3 strikes landed / min 3.1
51% striking accuracy 54%
4.2 strikes absorbed / min 2.3
61% striking defence 68%
1.6 takedowns / 15 min 1.7
40% takedown accuracy 60%
80% takedown defence 87%
1.2 submissions / 15 min 1.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market41% vs 38%
Consensus24 of 52 analysts
Sharpest angleLisboa by Decision — 9 of 9 method calls
Recommendation Back Lisboa @ $2.61 · fair $2.45 +6% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
HB Half The Battle picks Tainara Lisboa VALUE “I'm going to go with Tainara Lisboa here. I think Tainara Lisboa is a great pick.”
VI VinceMMA picks Luana Santos VALUE “I'm going to go to Luana Santos by unanimous decision.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Luana Santos “I'm going Santos by decision.”
MR MMA ROACH picks Luana Santos “I'm going to take her to win this, even though she's a disgusting, you know, freak who's into BCity, but that's neither here nor there. She should win this fight.”
SL SUPER LUTAS picks Tainara Lisboa VALUE “vai apostar na vitória da Tainara pagando 2,40”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Luana Santos “I'm going to go with Lana Luana Santos.”
JN JNapsMMAshorts picks Luana Santos “I got Luana Santos. She's Izzy 2.0.”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Tainara Lisboa VALUE “I'm going to say Liz Boa.” $2.60
P® Pro Schmo BETS ® picks Tainara Lisboa VALUE “We are fading Luana Santos here. I like Tyora Bis Lizboa.”
SN SnorkelMMA picks Luana Santos VALUE “I'm gonna be going Luana Santos. ... So, I feel like, yeah, a little bit of an edge towards Santos.” $1.77
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Tainara Lisboa VALUE “I have been picking Liz Boa to pull through and win.” $2.45
WP We Want Picks picks Tainara Lisboa VALUE “I think Tinara wins this fight”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Santos10-2
W Rosa Decision · R3 Jun '26
W Croden Decision · R3 Dec '25
W Lisboa Submission · R2 May '25
L O'Neill Decision · R3 Aug '24
W Agapova Submission · R1 Jul '24
Lisboa7-3
L Croden KO/TKO · R3 Oct '25
L Santos Submission · R2 May '25
W Oliveira Decision · R3 Oct '23
W Clark Submission · R3 May '23