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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
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MM GB Morales vs BurnsFight Card · Welterweight MS SY Santos vs YusuffFight Card · Lightweight NR DS Ruziboev vs StoltzfusFight Card · Middleweight MC JE Costa vs ErosaFight Card · Featherweight GG MC Green vs CamiloPreliminary Card · Lightweight JG TM Gordon vs MoisésPreliminary Card · Lightweight LS TL Santos vs LisboaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight DG ER Gomes vs ReedPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight PH CH Hyun-sung vs HernandezPreliminary Card · Flyweight TP LP Pennington vs PinheiroPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight YV CM Valle vs MatthewsPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Green over Camilo · Lightweight Our fair value$2.83 Betsson pays above fair $2.95
Where to back Green best price · region · EV vs fair $2.83
US BetAnything $2.95 +4%
UK LiveScore Bet $2.80 -1%
EU Betsson $2.95 +4%
AU PointsBet (AU) $2.90 +3%
Consensus53 picks · conf 70/99
Green 21
32 Camilo
FTB1UM pick Green
How it endsmethod calls · Green · crowd line
KO/TKO 3 $9.42
Submission 1 $28.27
Decision 5 $5.65
None 1 $28.27
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Green 12-5 VS 10-3 Camilo
5'10" height 5'10"
154 lb weight 156 lb
73" reach 69"
33 age 25
Switch stance Orthodox
— strikes landed / min —
— striking accuracy —
— strikes absorbed / min —
— striking defence —
— takedowns / 15 min —
— takedown accuracy —
— takedown defence —
— submissions / 15 min —
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market35% vs 34%
Consensus21 of 53 analysts
Sharpest angleGreen by Decision — 5 of 10 method calls
Recommendation Back Green @ $2.95 · fair $2.83 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
HB Half The Battle picks Matheus Camilo “Give me Matheus Camilo here. I think Matheus Camilo is going to be able to get it done.”
VI VinceMMA picks Gabriel Green VALUE “I'm going to go Matteos Kamo by decision.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Gabriel Green “I'm taking Gabriel Green.”
RP Rparqs picks Matheus Camilo VALUE “we're rocking just with the money line here and then we're adding Park Hyun-sung Hyun-sung” $2.21
JN JNapsMMAshorts picks Matheus Camilo “I got Matheus Camilo.”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Matheus Camilo “The pick for me is Matheus Camilo.” $1.44
P® Pro Schmo BETS ® picks Matheus Camilo VALUE “Matheus Camilo. Man, this guy, he's got a fight style like that of Jose Aldo... He steals a round from Gabriel Green. It's over.”
MT MMA TODAY picks Matheus Camilo “I'm going to stick to my heart and just say Mattz.”
GM GC MMA picks Gabriel Green “Give me Gabe gifted green plus 145.”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Gabriel Green “I have been picking Musas Camilo throughout the week.” $1.44
WP We Want Picks picks Matheus Camilo VALUE “I'm going to pick Matt”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Matheus Camilo “My subscribers and I are going with Matheus Matheus Camilo.” $1.57
Recent form last five, most recent first
Green12-5
W Camilo Submission · R2 May '25
L Battle KO/TKO · R1 May '23
L Garry Decision · R3 Jul '22
W Lainesse KO/TKO · R2 Apr '22
W Rowe Decision · R3 Feb '21
Camilo10-3
W Sadykhov KO/TKO · R1 Jun '26
W Borshchev Decision · R3 Nov '25
L Green Submission · R2 May '25