MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
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MM GB Morales vs BurnsFight Card · Welterweight MS SY Santos vs YusuffFight Card · Lightweight NR DS Ruziboev vs StoltzfusFight Card · Middleweight MC JE Costa vs ErosaFight Card · Featherweight GG MC Green vs CamiloPreliminary Card · Lightweight JG TM Gordon vs MoisésPreliminary Card · Lightweight LS TL Santos vs LisboaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight DG ER Gomes vs ReedPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight PH CH Hyun-sung vs HernandezPreliminary Card · Flyweight TP LP Pennington vs PinheiroPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight YV CM Valle vs MatthewsPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Pennington v Pinheiro Women'S Strawweight Our fair value $1.35 best price $1.30 PASS · MARKET AGREES
Where to back Pennington best price · region · EV vs fair $1.35
US BetRivers $1.30 -4%
UK LiveScore Bet $1.30 -4%
EU Unibet (EU) $1.30 -4%
AU TABtouch $1.30 -4%
Consensus57 picks · conf 72/99
Pennington 42
15 Pinheiro
MOCCTM pick Pennington
How it endsmethod calls · Pennington · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $37.75
Decision 26 $1.45
None 1 $37.75
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Pennington 14-7 VS 11-4 Pinheiro
5'1" height 5'2"
114 lb weight 115 lb
61" reach 63"
36 age 33
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.8 strikes landed / min 3.4
47% striking accuracy 40%
3.5 strikes absorbed / min 4.0
61% striking defence 61%
0.6 takedowns / 15 min 1.8
14% takedown accuracy 33%
63% takedown defence 69%
0.1 submissions / 15 min 0.2
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market74% vs 77%
Consensus42 of 57 analysts
Sharpest anglePennington by Decision — 26 of 28 method calls
Recommendation Pass — no edge model agrees with the market PASS
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CN Correlation Nation picks Luana Pinheiro VALUE “I'm going to take Luana Pinheiro... I think that Luana Pinheiro can win this fight.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Tecia Pennington “I'm going to go right there with Tecia Pennington.”
MR MMA ROACH picks Tecia Pennington “I'm going with Tecia Pennington. She's a good fighter.”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Tecia Pennington VALUE $1.31
MW Making the Walk picks Tecia Pennington VALUE $1.31
JN JNapsMMAshorts picks Tecia Pennington “I got Tecia Pennington.”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Tecia Pennington “My pick throughout the week has been Tecia Pennington to win.” $1.30
BE BetSam picks Luana Pinheiro VALUE “that's why I think Luana Pedo is absolutely live.”
BE BetSam picks Tecia Pennington “Tisha Torres, Tecia Pennington, whatever you want to call her. Listen, I just think the odds are wide here.”
P® Pro Schmo BETS ® picks Tecia Pennington VALUE “I'd like to see Tesa Pennington pull this off. Tecia Pennington is ranked, but believe it or not, if Lana Pinero wins this fight, she's getting uh higher on the rankings.”
CM Coty MMA picks Tecia Pennington VALUE “give me Tecia Pennington by decision”
MT MMA TODAY picks Luana Pinheiro “I'm going to go with the with the with steak and I and I think Luana Santos might win.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Pennington14-7
L Gomes Decision · R3 Nov '25
W Pinheiro Decision · R3 May '25
W Esparza Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Ricci Decision · R3 May '24
Pinheiro11-4
L Pennington Decision · R3 May '25
L Robertson Decision · R3 Nov '24
L Hill Submission · R2 May '24
L Ribas KO/TKO · R3 Nov '23
W Waterson-Gomez Decision · R3 Apr '23