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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
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MM GB Morales vs BurnsFight Card · Welterweight MS SY Santos vs YusuffFight Card · Lightweight NR DS Ruziboev vs StoltzfusFight Card · Middleweight MC JE Costa vs ErosaFight Card · Featherweight GG MC Green vs CamiloPreliminary Card · Lightweight JG TM Gordon vs MoisésPreliminary Card · Lightweight LS TL Santos vs LisboaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight DG ER Gomes vs ReedPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight PH CH Hyun-sung vs HernandezPreliminary Card · Flyweight TP LP Pennington vs PinheiroPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight YV CM Valle vs MatthewsPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Costa over Erosa · Featherweight Our fair value$1.54 Pinnacle pays above fair $1.57
Where to back Costa best price · region · EV vs fair $1.54
US FanDuel $1.56 +1%
UK Betway $1.57 +2%
EU Pinnacle $1.57 +2%
AU TABtouch $1.55 +1%
Consensus61 picks · conf 73/99
Costa 42
19 Erosa
MbHBOF pick Costa
How it endsmethod calls · Costa · crowd line
KO/TKO 19 $3.40
Submission 11 $5.88
Decision 9 $7.18
None 3 $21.55
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Costa 26-7 VS 0-0 Erosa
5'10" height 6'1"
145 lb weight 145 lb
71" reach 74"
29 age 36
Southpaw stance Southpaw
3.5 strikes landed / min 6.2
46% striking accuracy 48%
2.3 strikes absorbed / min 6.3
58% striking defence 48%
2.5 takedowns / 15 min 1.7
35% takedown accuracy 48%
52% takedown defence 58%
1.1 submissions / 15 min 0.8
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market65% vs 64%
Consensus42 of 61 analysts
Sharpest angleCosta by KO/TKO — 19 of 42 method calls
Recommendation Back Costa @ $1.57 · fair $1.54 +2% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
VI VinceMMA picks Julian Erosa VALUE “I'm going to go Costa by unanimous decision.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Melquizael Costa “I'm picking Costa by decision.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Julian Erosa “I'm going Julian Erosa.”
MR MMA ROACH picks Melquizael Costa “I'm gonna pick him to win.”
JN JNapsMMAshorts picks Melquizael Costa “I got Melquizael Costa getting it done.”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Julian Erosa “I'm going Costa.” $1.56
P® Pro Schmo BETS ® picks Melquizael Costa VALUE “you're riding Melquizael Costa why because Philly got submitted... Julian could catch an arm bar on Mezacel.”
CM Coty MMA picks Julian Erosa “Uh I like Melquizael Costa to win”
CM Coty MMA picks Melquizael Costa “I like Melquizael Costa to win”
MT MMA TODAY picks Julian Erosa “But I'm taking Julian Erosa for that one.”
GM GC MMA picks Julian Erosa VALUE “I'm going to go Julian Erosa here.”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Julian Erosa “I'm going to be picking Melquiza El Costa to win.” $1.57
Recent form last five, most recent first
Costa26-7
L Allen Decision · R5 May '26
W Ige KO/TKO · R1 Feb '26
W Charrière KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
W Erosa Decision · R3 May '25
W Rodriguez Decision · R3 Mar '25
Erosa0-0
L Douglas KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
L Costa Decision · R3 May '25
W Elkins KO/TKO · R1 Apr '25
W Rodriguez Submission · R1 Jul '24
W Ramos Submission · R1 Mar '24