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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Chiesa v Ferguson
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Chiesa 19-7
VS
26-11 Ferguson
6'1"
height
5'11"
171 lb
weight
170 lb
76"
reach
76"
38
age
42
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
1.9
strikes landed / min
4.9
40%
striking accuracy
45%
1.7
strikes absorbed / min
4.4
53%
striking defence
55%
3.4
takedowns / 15 min
0.4
51%
takedown accuracy
35%
60%
takedown defence
66%
1.0
submissions / 15 min
0.9
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
BM
Brando MMA picks Michael Chiesa
“I picked Michael Chiesa because I was coping a little bit probably but I mean he was looking decent on the feet man like like I said kesa has no power he's has no Knockouts in his career but Michael Chiesa man the first wrestling exchange they get into he just instantly gives up his bag instantly lets him get the hooks in”
Brando MMA picks Michael Chiesa
“I picked Michael Chiesa because I was coping a little bit probably but I mean he was looking decent on the feet man like like I said kesa has no power he's has no Knockouts in his career but Michael Chiesa man the first wrestling exchange they get into he just instantly gives up his bag instantly lets him get the hooks in”
MM
Mmajessic picks Tony Ferguson
“we are going to pick Tony Ferguson to get a win over Michael Chiesa”
Mmajessic picks Tony Ferguson
“we are going to pick Tony Ferguson to get a win over Michael Chiesa”
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Michael Chiesa
“G with your peek I just want to State before I start this that everything that came out of your mouth was rich coming from your Shamil Shamil Gazievieveless ass you know what I mean like crack on with all that crap that you want you Shamil Shamil Gazievieveless Shamil Shamil Gazievieveless man you I don't know why youy to talk when see one other thing one other thing is you talked about being above your pay grade and what Leroy saying yeah like you're losing 50 pound a minute never mind what you make an hour like boom get that one up you anyway Michael Chiesa Kessa by anyway that he wants even though the man's on a free fight losing streak himself like he lost against uh luk Shawn Brady and Kevin Holland and he's not actually fought for quite a while but you know I mean Tony Fergusony Ferguson just this is going to be the last one this is the last fight for Tony Fergusony he Ain he ain't getting this I know yeah but this has got to be the last one even Dana said he's he's not having it like he's not waiting him fight again after this I think I think Dana has been doing the L work here just letting him rack up all them losses man you know what I mean just so we know that he wasn't really that guy all that interim title he held all that while and yeah man that was making the work there if Tony Fergusony wins with IAS he needs to immediately take the and put him in the center of the cage I think that's what he's waiting on bro like I think he's waiting on a win to then ride off into the sunset and it's just like you know William how I know William everything we just been saying he's hurting him bad he's not trying to show it but I'm telling you I'm confirming it to you you right now this brother is hurting he's slicing on the inside man he's kicking his ass right inside bro trust me that's fake smou with the fake news and the fake PS that you've been coming with Jordan Vucenic what you saying brother just that it's Rich coming from a guy who's wearing the heart of a man who couldn't fight without his daddy by his side to hold his hand you know it's like yeah I don't know um I think obviously yeah I'm Mak a pick I'm I'm gonna be picking Michael Chiesa Cas I think [__] Tony Fergusony's a nut job who should probably be in a mental institution as opposed to an otic but I'm just saying man you've got like a pat bar hat you've got a [__] I'm getting done for tax fraud hat got my girlfriend dump me for a bigger manist hold on hold on hold on hold on hold on hold on did Jordan Vucenic just call kabib A P SS y he he knows I'm just saying I'm just he say what he want but he knows that's number one [__] can't fight anymore because his dad's not there to hold his hand that's all I'm saying I'm not saying any untruths doing it for mother he's doing it for mother yeah he's doing it for his mom yeah she doesn't have to P show some respect blood you know I mean show some respect don't be ay know I mean we're not trying to hearone of that right we're gonna find out when the tax man comes we're gonna find out when [__] Putin comes Ching the door like where's my cut so what what's the tax man going to do what what they what they going to do what they going to do to kabib man you know I mean they going they' got [__] half of joural the one is all the one is 3 million you know I mean chicken change my chicken CH you guys let's move on to the next let's move on to the next topic out of your mouth in in that segment there there was a lot of swearing please could you turn it down a bit please makes makes a d it's probably the most sensible thing you've said all night I like it let's move on milon Vera versus Deiveson Figueiredo this fight is happen in the Bantam way Division and Deiveson Figueiredo coming with a record of 23 and three one no contest we got milon Vera coming in with a record of 23 and n one no contest these guys are fighting one no contest on the record we might have a no contest on this one but figh of Brazil we got milon Vera fighting of Ecuador what are the live ODS on this one please Jordan Vucenic yeah figuro favorite at four to six with Vera at 5 to four okay um let's start with M se you here cool mate so uh I think we can all agree that this show is already [__] for monetization so I'm just going to start swearing massive in the pan like you I mean it is bro like yeah that bendoya saved it like um but I think how is it you doing sorry boys the dogs trying to bend on me here um let him out quickly there we go so yeah I don't get how this isn't the co main like soon you when you look at the card like obviously geographical location again like but it's ridiculous how is this not the co main like this is the second biggest fight there yeah I mean like it is mental Mar and Vera and Davison Figaro ain't the co- Main Event like wild obviously Vera coming off that was to um om Mai figero coming off his impressive when against Cody Garand yeah know I mean but in saying that I'm going to be back in ver to get this one done I think figero yeah I he's wicked he's he's unbelievable like he he as we've seen with the Marino fights like striking impeccable jiujitsu wrestling all the rest of it is great too uh but I think he's going to struggle with a range of Vera I think the kicks I think the length like everything about it is going to be a bit difficult for him he's not going to be able to sub him like he did against C Gabon anyway and hopefully ver actually that's the thing with Mar when he returns up or he doesn't but I think he's got a lot to come and say after that shaali lost as well so I'm back in ver to get this one done okay um Jordan Vucenic yeah I'm actually GNA go with figer on this one um Al I was there live at USC 300 and I wasn't really sure how it was going to translate but um figur looks really good even in the Rob font fight I think that's probably closer to what he's going to face against Marlon Vera than kod fight um yeah I think his grappling translated really well with extra 10 pounds and he's more powerful I think he was depleting himself a fair bit to get down to 125 um he is getting older now but I think Marlon Vera is just that inactive in his fights and he waits that long for that one shot that he can find especially in three round fights a five round fight I might back Marlon Vera but in a three- round fight I don't think there's enough time for him to do his best work so I think it's knockout or bust for him um so one or two takedowns and it should secure actually the whole fight for Deiveson Figueiredo so I'm going to go with him yeah man um William you're muted brother Jes the state of this guy tonight man I've seen clouds aren't as high as you right now what you say [Laughter] William I'm gonna go with Brian Tio Bri Brian I thought he was about to say t City I thought was about to see bro never never mind let him let him B he's let him bake you I mean somebody quit that but where we ask well who's piing between do your thing William do your thing Brian Brian Davidson fuing Brian all right I'm I'm going to go with Deiveson Figueiredo uh I think he is's you know he's he's looking to make that run uh to the title hence why he's got somebody like uh Malon Vera that's you know that's just coming off a loss to to to um shaali and a win against somebody like a like a Malon Vera could definitely get him in those conversations and I think he's going to take this one seriously um so yeah for me I'm I'm going to go with a Deiveson Figueiredo on this one I am hoping he pulls this one off this one here could change the the course of things for him I'm praying I hope he pulls it off man I'm praying um okay um let's get [Music] Brian over there this one of the best yeah you know what that's a good one making a Workman um let's go on to the uh co-main event of the evening coing is Sharabutdin Magomedov magedov uh fighting Michał Oleksiejczuk uh alexu coming with a record of got there yeah 1 and0 and uh hold on coming noer M right one one you with these cards two you ain't even got [__] right on them bro like don't come into the chat telling us what we can and can't say and Cent to us and talk to us about monetization and you can't get production right come on Leroy man hey people the monetization is already [__] everybody [__] [__] Leroy in the chat Fu can't do that put Leroy as a dick I said this the SC yeah now they're saying it I said this before we even start the show production here is so crazy like I mean people don't get [__] right but now these you didn't get [__] right you just said brandom [__] what's wrong with you you didn't get are take take calm down calm down man calm down [__] your [__] hat s mate come on fix yourself you're on internet come on bro yeah and we got sh bro sh fighting out of Russia and we got m fighting out of Poland what live on this one if lero got it right yeah mag made off two five favorite with Mel at 2011 all r”
The Rambling Dad picks Michael Chiesa
“G with your peek I just want to State before I start this that everything that came out of your mouth was rich coming from your Shamil Shamil Gazievieveless ass you know what I mean like crack on with all that crap that you want you Shamil Shamil Gazievieveless Shamil Shamil Gazievieveless man you I don't know why youy to talk when see one other thing one other thing is you talked about being above your pay grade and what Leroy saying yeah like you're losing 50 pound a minute never mind what you make an hour like boom get that one up you anyway Michael Chiesa Kessa by anyway that he wants even though the man's on a free fight losing streak himself like he lost against uh luk Shawn Brady and Kevin Holland and he's not actually fought for quite a while but you know I mean Tony Fergusony Ferguson just this is going to be the last one this is the last fight for Tony Fergusony he Ain he ain't getting this I know yeah but this has got to be the last one even Dana said he's he's not having it like he's not waiting him fight again after this I think I think Dana has been doing the L work here just letting him rack up all them losses man you know what I mean just so we know that he wasn't really that guy all that interim title he held all that while and yeah man that was making the work there if Tony Fergusony wins with IAS he needs to immediately take the and put him in the center of the cage I think that's what he's waiting on bro like I think he's waiting on a win to then ride off into the sunset and it's just like you know William how I know William everything we just been saying he's hurting him bad he's not trying to show it but I'm telling you I'm confirming it to you you right now this brother is hurting he's slicing on the inside man he's kicking his ass right inside bro trust me that's fake smou with the fake news and the fake PS that you've been coming with Jordan Vucenic what you saying brother just that it's Rich coming from a guy who's wearing the heart of a man who couldn't fight without his daddy by his side to hold his hand you know it's like yeah I don't know um I think obviously yeah I'm Mak a pick I'm I'm gonna be picking Michael Chiesa Cas I think [__] Tony Fergusony's a nut job who should probably be in a mental institution as opposed to an otic but I'm just saying man you've got like a pat bar hat you've got a [__] I'm getting done for tax fraud hat got my girlfriend dump me for a bigger manist hold on hold on hold on hold on hold on hold on did Jordan Vucenic just call kabib A P SS y he he knows I'm just saying I'm just he say what he want but he knows that's number one [__] can't fight anymore because his dad's not there to hold his hand that's all I'm saying I'm not saying any untruths doing it for mother he's doing it for mother yeah he's doing it for his mom yeah she doesn't have to P show some respect blood you know I mean show some respect don't be ay know I mean we're not trying to hearone of that right we're gonna find out when the tax man comes we're gonna find out when [__] Putin comes Ching the door like where's my cut so what what's the tax man going to do what what they what they going to do what they going to do to kabib man you know I mean they going they' got [__] half of joural the one is all the one is 3 million you know I mean chicken change my chicken CH you guys let's move on to the next let's move on to the next topic out of your mouth in in that segment there there was a lot of swearing please could you turn it down a bit please makes makes a d it's probably the most sensible thing you've said all night I like it let's move on milon Vera versus Deiveson Figueiredo this fight is happen in the Bantam way Division and Deiveson Figueiredo coming with a record of 23 and three one no contest we got milon Vera coming in with a record of 23 and n one no contest these guys are fighting one no contest on the record we might have a no contest on this one but figh of Brazil we got milon Vera fighting of Ecuador what are the live ODS on this one please Jordan Vucenic yeah figuro favorite at four to six with Vera at 5 to four okay um let's start with M se you here cool mate so uh I think we can all agree that this show is already [__] for monetization so I'm just going to start swearing massive in the pan like you I mean it is bro like yeah that bendoya saved it like um but I think how is it you doing sorry boys the dogs trying to bend on me here um let him out quickly there we go so yeah I don't get how this isn't the co main like soon you when you look at the card like obviously geographical location again like but it's ridiculous how is this not the co main like this is the second biggest fight there yeah I mean like it is mental Mar and Vera and Davison Figaro ain't the co- Main Event like wild obviously Vera coming off that was to um om Mai figero coming off his impressive when against Cody Garand yeah know I mean but in saying that I'm going to be back in ver to get this one done I think figero yeah I he's wicked he's he's unbelievable like he he as we've seen with the Marino fights like striking impeccable jiujitsu wrestling all the rest of it is great too uh but I think he's going to struggle with a range of Vera I think the kicks I think the length like everything about it is going to be a bit difficult for him he's not going to be able to sub him like he did against C Gabon anyway and hopefully ver actually that's the thing with Mar when he returns up or he doesn't but I think he's got a lot to come and say after that shaali lost as well so I'm back in ver to get this one done okay um Jordan Vucenic yeah I'm actually GNA go with figer on this one um Al I was there live at USC 300 and I wasn't really sure how it was going to translate but um figur looks really good even in the Rob font fight I think that's probably closer to what he's going to face against Marlon Vera than kod fight um yeah I think his grappling translated really well with extra 10 pounds and he's more powerful I think he was depleting himself a fair bit to get down to 125 um he is getting older now but I think Marlon Vera is just that inactive in his fights and he waits that long for that one shot that he can find especially in three round fights a five round fight I might back Marlon Vera but in a three- round fight I don't think there's enough time for him to do his best work so I think it's knockout or bust for him um so one or two takedowns and it should secure actually the whole fight for Deiveson Figueiredo so I'm going to go with him yeah man um William you're muted brother Jes the state of this guy tonight man I've seen clouds aren't as high as you right now what you say [Laughter] William I'm gonna go with Brian Tio Bri Brian I thought he was about to say t City I thought was about to see bro never never mind let him let him B he's let him bake you I mean somebody quit that but where we ask well who's piing between do your thing William do your thing Brian Brian Davidson fuing Brian all right I'm I'm going to go with Deiveson Figueiredo uh I think he is's you know he's he's looking to make that run uh to the title hence why he's got somebody like uh Malon Vera that's you know that's just coming off a loss to to to um shaali and a win against somebody like a like a Malon Vera could definitely get him in those conversations and I think he's going to take this one seriously um so yeah for me I'm I'm going to go with a Deiveson Figueiredo on this one I am hoping he pulls this one off this one here could change the the course of things for him I'm praying I hope he pulls it off man I'm praying um okay um let's get [Music] Brian over there this one of the best yeah you know what that's a good one making a Workman um let's go on to the uh co-main event of the evening coing is Sharabutdin Magomedov magedov uh fighting Michał Oleksiejczuk uh alexu coming with a record of got there yeah 1 and0 and uh hold on coming noer M right one one you with these cards two you ain't even got [__] right on them bro like don't come into the chat telling us what we can and can't say and Cent to us and talk to us about monetization and you can't get production right come on Leroy man hey people the monetization is already [__] everybody [__] [__] Leroy in the chat Fu can't do that put Leroy as a dick I said this the SC yeah now they're saying it I said this before we even start the show production here is so crazy like I mean people don't get [__] right but now these you didn't get [__] right you just said brandom [__] what's wrong with you you didn't get are take take calm down calm down man calm down [__] your [__] hat s mate come on fix yourself you're on internet come on bro yeah and we got sh bro sh fighting out of Russia and we got m fighting out of Poland what live on this one if lero got it right yeah mag made off two five favorite with Mel at 2011 all r”
ES
etoft21 sports picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“I can't see out of also the one thing I've watched some of NOT_IN_ROSTER_3 fights... I'll take Michael Chiesa here give me the plus 215 I like it”
$3.15
etoft21 sports picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“I can't see out of also the one thing I've watched some of NOT_IN_ROSTER_3 fights... I'll take Michael Chiesa here give me the plus 215 I like it”
$3.15
TM
The MMA-Holes picks Michael Chiesa
“I'm leaning towards Michael Chiesa”
The MMA-Holes picks Michael Chiesa
“I'm leaning towards Michael Chiesa”
RA
RotoGrinders - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“I think Michael Chiesaa is like maybe maybe Michael Chiesaa and Kauê Fernandes”
RotoGrinders - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“I think Michael Chiesaa is like maybe maybe Michael Chiesaa and Kauê Fernandes”
RA
RotoGrinders - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Tony Ferguson
“Michael ChiesaS is facing Tony Ferguson who has not won a fight in like six years”
RotoGrinders - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Tony Ferguson
“Michael ChiesaS is facing Tony Ferguson who has not won a fight in like six years”
OS
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Tony Ferguson VALUE
“my subscribers got 10 out of 14 last week and they picked Tony Ferguson”
$5.30
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Tony Ferguson VALUE
“my subscribers got 10 out of 14 last week and they picked Tony Ferguson”
$5.30
MO
Mompeaux picks Michael Chiesa
“my pig is kza”
Mompeaux picks Michael Chiesa
“my pig is kza”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“don't mind Michael Chiesa here at 9,500 although he's very expensive”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“don't mind Michael Chiesa here at 9,500 although he's very expensive”
SA
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“I think Michael Chiesa Chiesa wins and I think it scores pretty well for EVENT_DETAILS purposes as well”
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“I think Michael Chiesa Chiesa wins and I think it scores pretty well for EVENT_DETAILS purposes as well”
WT
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“I think that TS is gonna finish him”
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Michael Chiesa VALUE
“I think that TS is gonna finish him”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Chiesa19-7
W
Price
Mar '26
W
McGee
Jun '25
W
Griffin
Dec '24
W
Ferguson
Aug '24
L
Holland
Jul '23
Ferguson26-11
L
Chiesa
Aug '24
L
Pimblett
Dec '23
L
Green
Jul '23
L
Diaz
Sep '22
L
Chandler
May '22