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Chiesa vs FergusonMain Card · Welterweight
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Dern vs GodinezMain Card · Women'S Strawweight
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Álvarez vs BrenerMain Card · Lightweight
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Murzakanov vs MenifieldPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
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Fernandes vs YahyaPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Gaziev vs MayesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
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Kutateladze vs VucenicPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Hughes vs DudakovaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
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Herbert vs BedoyaPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Dumas vs TiuliulinPreliminary Card · Middleweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Álvarez v Brener
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Álvarez 23-3
VS
16-5 Brener
6'3"
height
5'10"
171 lb
weight
155 lb
77"
reach
72"
33
age
28
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
2.9
strikes landed / min
4.0
62%
striking accuracy
47%
4.4
strikes absorbed / min
5.3
54%
striking defence
48%
2.5
takedowns / 15 min
1.2
37%
takedown accuracy
23%
50%
takedown defence
76%
0.8
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MM
Mmajessic picks Joel Álvarez
“my pick for this fight is Joel Álvarez”
Mmajessic picks Joel Álvarez
“my pick for this fight is Joel Álvarez”
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Elves Brener VALUE
“I'm going to go with Elvis Brena as my third Underdog here”
The Rambling Dad picks Elves Brener VALUE
“I'm going to go with Elvis Brena as my third Underdog here”
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Joel Álvarez
“I'm going with Joel Alvarez”
The Rambling Dad picks Joel Álvarez
“I'm going with Joel Alvarez”
RA
RotoGrinders - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“I think another fight to Target is the Joel Joel Álvarez Elves Brener fight”
RotoGrinders - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“I think another fight to Target is the Joel Joel Álvarez Elves Brener fight”
RA
RotoGrinders - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Elves Brener VALUE
“I think Elvis Brenner is uh is very good leverage right to me Elves Brener is a leverage play”
RotoGrinders - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Elves Brener VALUE
“I think Elvis Brenner is uh is very good leverage right to me Elves Brener is a leverage play”
MO
Mompeaux picks Joel Álvarez
“I'm G to pick Joel Álvarez”
Mompeaux picks Joel Álvarez
“I'm G to pick Joel Álvarez”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“Joel Álvarez 8,300 and you can't ignore a guy with a 100% finish rate”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“Joel Álvarez 8,300 and you can't ignore a guy with a 100% finish rate”
SA
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“I currently have a little bit more exposure to Joel Álvarez Álvarez”
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“I currently have a little bit more exposure to Joel Álvarez Álvarez”
WT
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Elves Brener VALUE
“give me Elvis Elves Brener give me Elves Brener to win this Deiveson Figueiredoht”
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Elves Brener VALUE
“give me Elvis Elves Brener give me Elves Brener to win this Deiveson Figueiredoht”
ST
SteadyPicks picks Elves Brener
“I think this is going to be a dog fight and I just think he's going to have that that extra um in him”
SteadyPicks picks Elves Brener
“I think this is going to be a dog fight and I just think he's going to have that that extra um in him”
RA
RotoGrinders - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Elves Brener VALUE
“I want the Assassin Elves Brener uh because I think he's more likely to control the fight with top position early”
RotoGrinders - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Elves Brener VALUE
“I want the Assassin Elves Brener uh because I think he's more likely to control the fight with top position early”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Álvarez23-3
L
Amosov
May '26
W
Luque
Oct '25
W
Klose
Dec '24
W
Brener
Aug '24
W
Diakiese
Jul '23
Brener16-5
L
Ribovics
Aug '25
L
Álvarez
Aug '24
L
Orolbai
May '24
W
Kruschewsky
Nov '23
W
Kutateladze
Jul '23