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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Krylov v Gustafsson
Light Heavyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Krylov 30-11
VS
18-8 Gustafsson
6'3"
height
6'5"
205 lb
weight
205 lb
78"
reach
79"
34
age
39
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.4
strikes landed / min
4.0
55%
striking accuracy
40%
2.5
strikes absorbed / min
3.5
44%
striking defence
51%
2.3
takedowns / 15 min
1.5
38%
takedown accuracy
39%
53%
takedown defence
83%
1.4
submissions / 15 min
0.4
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
WP
We Want Picks picks Nikita Krylov
“if Alexander Gustafsson looks motivated cares at all he's much better than the key to krylov but if it's that gus of sin then the key to krylov steamrolls him”
We Want Picks picks Nikita Krylov
“if Alexander Gustafsson looks motivated cares at all he's much better than the key to krylov but if it's that gus of sin then the key to krylov steamrolls him”
SH
Sherdog.com picks Nikita Krylov VALUE
“gustavson is back here Alexander Gustafsson he's the underdog against Nikita Krylov i think which would have been mad only a few years ago he's plus 155 minus 180 for Nikita Krylov um [Music] look if you're betting on Alexander Gustafsson you're betting on the old Alexander Gustafsson and i probably would still do it fake it yeah i'm going to go for it then”
$1.56
Sherdog.com picks Nikita Krylov VALUE
“gustavson is back here Alexander Gustafsson he's the underdog against Nikita Krylov i think which would have been mad only a few years ago he's plus 155 minus 180 for Nikita Krylov um [Music] look if you're betting on Alexander Gustafsson you're betting on the old Alexander Gustafsson and i probably would still do it fake it yeah i'm going to go for it then”
$1.56
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Nikita Krylov VALUE
“the only reason i am playing Nikita Krylov in this fight is because of that finish rate”
$87.00
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Nikita Krylov VALUE
“the only reason i am playing Nikita Krylov in this fight is because of that finish rate”
$87.00
AM
Artem MMA picks Nikita Krylov
“i'm picking Nikita Krylov”
Artem MMA picks Nikita Krylov
“i'm picking Nikita Krylov”
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks Alexander Gustafsson
“Alexander Gustafsson making his return to the octagon let's be clear only at the age of 35”
Walk The Line MMA picks Alexander Gustafsson
“Alexander Gustafsson making his return to the octagon let's be clear only at the age of 35”
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks Nikita Krylov
“i think that nikita is one of the more underrated fighters in the division”
Walk The Line MMA picks Nikita Krylov
“i think that nikita is one of the more underrated fighters in the division”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Alexander Gustafsson
“i'm gonna pick alexander gustafsson to win this fight”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Alexander Gustafsson
“i'm gonna pick alexander gustafsson to win this fight”
GP
Greedo Plays picks Nikita Krylov
“i think Nikita Krylov is going to win this fight he's gonna win by decision”
Greedo Plays picks Nikita Krylov
“i think Nikita Krylov is going to win this fight he's gonna win by decision”
TF
The ICE Files picks Nikita Krylov VALUE
“i'm leaning towards Nikita Krylov on this one”
The ICE Files picks Nikita Krylov VALUE
“i'm leaning towards Nikita Krylov on this one”
WP
We Want Picks picks Nikita Krylov
“nikita is the pick”
We Want Picks picks Nikita Krylov
“nikita is the pick”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Krylov30-11
W
Bukauskas
Jan '26
L
Guskov
Jul '25
L
Reyes
Apr '25
W
Spann
Mar '23
W
Oezdemir
Oct '22
Gustafsson18-8
L
Krylov
Jul '22
L
Werdum
Jul '20
L
Smith
Jun '19
L
Jones
Dec '18
W
Teixeira
May '17