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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Herbert v Nelson
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Herbert 13-6-1
VS
17-6-1 Nelson
6'1"
height
5'11"
156 lb
weight
155 lb
77"
reach
71"
38
age
35
Orthodox
stance
Switch
3.2
strikes landed / min
2.7
42%
striking accuracy
44%
3.4
strikes absorbed / min
3.6
52%
striking defence
61%
0.5
takedowns / 15 min
2.5
23%
takedown accuracy
31%
59%
takedown defence
56%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
1.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
DS
Dynes Sports picks Jai Herbert VALUE
“i like herbert in this matchup... he's got six inches of reach he's got two inches of height on nelson... he clipped the poria in that last fight... i think he really does have nice hands”
Dynes Sports picks Jai Herbert VALUE
“i like herbert in this matchup... he's got six inches of reach he's got two inches of height on nelson... he clipped the poria in that last fight... i think he really does have nice hands”
WP
We Want Picks picks Jai Herbert VALUE
“i think Jai Herbert wins here”
We Want Picks picks Jai Herbert VALUE
“i think Jai Herbert wins here”
MP
MMA Prophecy picks Jai Herbert
“i got Jai Herbert in this one”
MMA Prophecy picks Jai Herbert
“i got Jai Herbert in this one”
SH
Sherdog.com picks Kyle Nelson
“Jai Herbert is such a big favorite he's minus two six seven plus two particularly an interview during the week if you haven't checked it out on sherdog.com please do now i do think chai will win this but i also think Kyle Nelson's a good fighter”
$3.17
Sherdog.com picks Kyle Nelson
“Jai Herbert is such a big favorite he's minus two six seven plus two particularly an interview during the week if you haven't checked it out on sherdog.com please do now i do think chai will win this but i also think Kyle Nelson's a good fighter”
$3.17
SH
Sherdog.com picks Jai Herbert VALUE
“i do think chai will win this but i also think Kyle Nelson's a good fighter you know john even said that himself on the interview so that's not me speaking out a turn or anything there uh i think that should be a little bit closer but i do think joy jaya minus 150 will probably be the the right one”
$1.37
Sherdog.com picks Jai Herbert VALUE
“i do think chai will win this but i also think Kyle Nelson's a good fighter you know john even said that himself on the interview so that's not me speaking out a turn or anything there uh i think that should be a little bit closer but i do think joy jaya minus 150 will probably be the the right one”
$1.37
DR
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Kyle Nelson VALUE
“Kyle Nelson against Jai Herbert”
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Kyle Nelson VALUE
“Kyle Nelson against Jai Herbert”
SD
Santino DeFranco picks Jai Herbert VALUE
“prediction for me is going to be herbert i have no intention of betting him as a heavy favorite here but he will likely look like the heavy favorite”
$1.40
Santino DeFranco picks Jai Herbert VALUE
“prediction for me is going to be herbert i have no intention of betting him as a heavy favorite here but he will likely look like the heavy favorite”
$1.40
WP
We Want Picks picks Jai Herbert
“i'm gonna go with Jai Herbert here because even in that loss to ilia he looked sharp before he was knocked out”
We Want Picks picks Jai Herbert
“i'm gonna go with Jai Herbert here because even in that loss to ilia he looked sharp before he was knocked out”
AM
Artem MMA picks Jai Herbert
“give me joy herbert”
Artem MMA picks Jai Herbert
“give me joy herbert”
AM
Artem MMA picks Jai Herbert VALUE
“give me Jai Herbert”
Artem MMA picks Jai Herbert VALUE
“give me Jai Herbert”
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks Kyle Nelson
“kyle Kyle Nelson he's only won one of his last four fights but he goes out there he brings the fight time and time again”
Walk The Line MMA picks Kyle Nelson
“kyle Kyle Nelson he's only won one of his last four fights but he goes out there he brings the fight time and time again”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Herbert13-6-1
W
Nallo
Apr '26
L
Padilla
Mar '25
W
Bedoya
Aug '24
L
Ziam
Jul '23
W
Nelson
Jul '22
Nelson17-6-1
L
McKinney
Mar '26
W
Frevola
Oct '25
L
Garcia
Sep '24
W
Algeo
Mar '24
W
Padilla
Sep '23