Choose a fight to analyse
DP
CM
Poirier vs McGregorMain Card · Lightweight
GB
ST
Burns vs ThompsonMain Card · Welterweight
TT
GH
Tuivasa vs HardyMain Card · Heavyweight
IA
YK
Aldana vs KunitskayaMain Card · Catchweight
SO
KM
O'Malley vs MoutinhoMain Card · Bantamweight
MG
CC
Griffin vs ConditPreliminary Card · Welterweight
MP
NP
Pereira vs PricePreliminary Card · Welterweight
IT
RH
Topuria vs HallPreliminary Card · Featherweight
DP
TG
Plessis vs GilesPreliminary Card · Middleweight
JM
JE
Maia vs EyeEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BT
OA
Tavares vs AkhmedovEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
ZZ
JR
Zhumagulov vs RiveraEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight
CM
Poirier vs McGregorMain Card · Lightweight
GB
ST
Burns vs ThompsonMain Card · Welterweight
TT
GH
Tuivasa vs HardyMain Card · Heavyweight
IA
YK
Aldana vs KunitskayaMain Card · Catchweight
SO
KM
O'Malley vs MoutinhoMain Card · Bantamweight
MG
CC
Griffin vs ConditPreliminary Card · Welterweight
MP
NP
Pereira vs PricePreliminary Card · Welterweight
IT
RH
Topuria vs HallPreliminary Card · Featherweight
DP
TG
Plessis vs GilesPreliminary Card · Middleweight
JM
JE
Maia vs EyeEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BT
OA
Tavares vs AkhmedovEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
ZZ
JR
Zhumagulov vs RiveraEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Poirier v McGregor
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Poirier 30-9
VS
22-6 McGregor
5'9"
height
5'9"
156 lb
weight
156 lb
72"
reach
74"
37
age
37
Southpaw
stance
Southpaw
5.3
strikes landed / min
5.3
50%
striking accuracy
49%
4.3
strikes absorbed / min
4.7
52%
striking defence
54%
1.2
takedowns / 15 min
0.7
36%
takedown accuracy
55%
64%
takedown defence
66%
1.3
submissions / 15 min
0.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TG
THE MMA GURU picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“who yao zhang gets to finish as an upset”
THE MMA GURU picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“who yao zhang gets to finish as an upset”
WP
We Want Picks picks Dustin Poirier
“i have Dustin Poirier talked about this at length in some of our other videos i don't see this fight going much differently than the last fight other than Conor McGregor will probably be a little bit better shape so i just see the same thing playing out over the course of three to four rounds as opposed to two rounds um i think Dustin Poirier is going to be able to use his wrestling if he wants getting the clinch tire Conor McGregor out”
We Want Picks picks Dustin Poirier
“i have Dustin Poirier talked about this at length in some of our other videos i don't see this fight going much differently than the last fight other than Conor McGregor will probably be a little bit better shape so i just see the same thing playing out over the course of three to four rounds as opposed to two rounds um i think Dustin Poirier is going to be able to use his wrestling if he wants getting the clinch tire Conor McGregor out”
WP
We Want Picks picks Dustin Poirier
“my pick for tonight would be uh Dustin Poirier puri i think uh he's gonna it's gonna happen the same thing happened last fight uh he got Conor McGregor number and it's just a bigger guys and a better guy man”
We Want Picks picks Dustin Poirier
“my pick for tonight would be uh Dustin Poirier puri i think uh he's gonna it's gonna happen the same thing happened last fight uh he got Conor McGregor number and it's just a bigger guys and a better guy man”
CS
Calf Kick Sports picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“Dustin Poirier when he's got seven options if he loses he has options it's just a good good good matchup overall”
Calf Kick Sports picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“Dustin Poirier when he's got seven options if he loses he has options it's just a good good good matchup overall”
MW
MMA Fight Picks - Aaron Weinbaum picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“i'm gonna let me refresh him just to make sure because i think it's about even yeah minus 120 even uh plus 100 for connor i would imagine that's kind of one of those things you don't go to the pay or the betting window until closer to this fight because i have a feeling more money will probably come in on Conor McGregor uh making Dustin Poirier a little more of an attractive underdog here at the end so interesting both these guys 32 years old that's crazy uh because you know they got a lot of miles on them and that's it so that's all i got so unless you all have something to say oh i live in vegas bo adams and when a EVENT_DETAILS featuring Conor McGregor it gets nuts well thank you so much for uh for coming by man i was just in vegas a few weeks ago vegas was nuts anyways i mean it was packed you just had to be kind of patient and i guess i i don't know it was a good time though man and uh i enjoyed it i forgot that i still had i lied quinta's uh twitter info on my thing this is what i mean i mean you producer of my own here so i think alan i may start with the video first uh before the call meow podcast which is coming to you soon coming to you soon we're going to be available everywhere podcasts are but thank you beau adams for uh commenting there and i think we're going to let her go here and so until next time i'll be picking fights again enjoy the fights this weekend don't drink and drive and uh yeah wherever you are remember to hit subscribe hit subscribe and uh yeah just a definite reminder there beau adams thank you so much for the compliment he says good show so just remember wherever you are hit subscribe and uh boom the call meow podcast is coming soon it's an honor for me to be uh producing that so until next time like i said shalom please remember to support the podcast by visiting the affiliate links on aaronsaysayswhat.com”
MMA Fight Picks - Aaron Weinbaum picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“i'm gonna let me refresh him just to make sure because i think it's about even yeah minus 120 even uh plus 100 for connor i would imagine that's kind of one of those things you don't go to the pay or the betting window until closer to this fight because i have a feeling more money will probably come in on Conor McGregor uh making Dustin Poirier a little more of an attractive underdog here at the end so interesting both these guys 32 years old that's crazy uh because you know they got a lot of miles on them and that's it so that's all i got so unless you all have something to say oh i live in vegas bo adams and when a EVENT_DETAILS featuring Conor McGregor it gets nuts well thank you so much for uh for coming by man i was just in vegas a few weeks ago vegas was nuts anyways i mean it was packed you just had to be kind of patient and i guess i i don't know it was a good time though man and uh i enjoyed it i forgot that i still had i lied quinta's uh twitter info on my thing this is what i mean i mean you producer of my own here so i think alan i may start with the video first uh before the call meow podcast which is coming to you soon coming to you soon we're going to be available everywhere podcasts are but thank you beau adams for uh commenting there and i think we're going to let her go here and so until next time i'll be picking fights again enjoy the fights this weekend don't drink and drive and uh yeah wherever you are remember to hit subscribe hit subscribe and uh yeah just a definite reminder there beau adams thank you so much for the compliment he says good show so just remember wherever you are hit subscribe and uh boom the call meow podcast is coming soon it's an honor for me to be uh producing that so until next time like i said shalom please remember to support the podcast by visiting the affiliate links on aaronsaysayswhat.com”
TM
The MMA-Holes picks Conor McGregor VALUE
The MMA-Holes picks Conor McGregor VALUE
CO
Covers picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“if you're backing Dustin Poirier i would wait closer to flight day”
$1.77
Covers picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“if you're backing Dustin Poirier i would wait closer to flight day”
$1.77
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“give me Dustin Poirier for a like i said splitting at fifty fifty”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“give me Dustin Poirier for a like i said splitting at fifty fifty”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Dustin Poirier
“i got to ride amidovsky i think he could get a late ko win around the third maybe it goes the decision but amidovsky should win the fight”
$1.67
MMA EXPERTS picks Dustin Poirier
“i got to ride amidovsky i think he could get a late ko win around the third maybe it goes the decision but amidovsky should win the fight”
$1.67
DR
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Conor McGregor VALUE
“I hope Conor McGregor comes through... my prediction is Conor McGregor is going to win this weekend.”
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Conor McGregor VALUE
“I hope Conor McGregor comes through... my prediction is Conor McGregor is going to win this weekend.”
TO
Tobin picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“I'm taking Dustin Poirier to win this uh trilogy fight”
Tobin picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“I'm taking Dustin Poirier to win this uh trilogy fight”
WP
We Want Picks picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“i have alan in my lineup i think he wins the fight”
We Want Picks picks Dustin Poirier VALUE
“i have alan in my lineup i think he wins the fight”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Poirier30-9
L
Holloway
Jul '25
L
Makhachev
Jun '24
W
Denis
Mar '24
L
Gaethje
Jul '23
W
Chandler
Nov '22
McGregor22-6
L
Poirier
Jul '21
L
Poirier
Jan '21
W
Cerrone
Jan '20
L
Nurmagomedov
Oct '18
W
Alvarez
Nov '16