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UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read O'Malley v Moutinho Bantamweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus6 picks · conf 18/99
O'Malley 5
1 Moutinho
DCWWD pick O'Malley
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
O'Malley 19-3 VS 14-7 Moutinho
5'11" height 5'7"
135 lb weight 136 lb
72" reach 68"
31 age 33
Switch stance Southpaw
5.4 strikes landed / min 4.9
55% striking accuracy 32%
3.7 strikes absorbed / min 15.5
56% striking defence 28%
0.2 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
33% takedown accuracy 0%
82% takedown defence 0%
0.2 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WP We Want Picks picks Sean O'Malley VALUE “i mean o'malley i think wins in the first round by knockout i don't know what else you would possibly want um then i have Sean O'Malley over the one-week short notice chris motino”
TM The MMA-Holes picks Kris Moutinho “i want to see Kris Moutinho win”
CO Covers picks Sean O'Malley “i think he's going to win the fight in probably an impressive fashion” $1.11
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Sean O'Malley VALUE “give me Sean O'Malley as a courtplay 9500 must own”
DR Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Sean O'Malley VALUE “Sean O'Malley's gonna knock Dustin Poirier out... finished it in 20 seconds after the calf was shut down.”
WP We Want Picks picks Sean O'Malley VALUE “i'm all in on Sean O'Malley”
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Sean O'Malley VALUE “Sean O'Malley will style on louis moca and most likely we'll get a knockout here”
Recent form last five, most recent first
O'Malley19-3
W Zahabi KO/TKO · R2 Jun '26
W Yadong Decision · R3 Jan '26
L Dvalishvili Submission · R3 Jun '25
L Dvalishvili Decision · R5 Sep '24
W Vera Decision · R5 Mar '24
Moutinho14-7
L Quiñónez Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Quiñonez Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Wellmaker KO/TKO · R1 Jun '25
L Cannetti KO/TKO · R1 Mar '22
L O'Malley KO/TKO · R3 Jul '21