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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Tuivasa v Hardy
Heavyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Tuivasa 15-9
VS
7-5 Hardy
6'2"
height
6'5"
265 lb
weight
266 lb
75"
reach
81"
33
age
37
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
3.8
strikes landed / min
4.8
46%
striking accuracy
50%
5.2
strikes absorbed / min
3.3
44%
striking defence
55%
0.0
takedowns / 15 min
0.2
0%
takedown accuracy
33%
57%
takedown defence
64%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
WP
We Want Picks picks Tai Tuivasa VALUE
“i think tu ivasa does whatever the hell he wants to and eventually gets the stoppage”
We Want Picks picks Tai Tuivasa VALUE
“i think tu ivasa does whatever the hell he wants to and eventually gets the stoppage”
WP
We Want Picks picks Greg Hardy VALUE
“then he has Greg Hardy over Tai Tuivasa he's just he's just loving the Greg Hardy power here he thinks Greg Hardy comes forward and just blasts to ivasa with those big heavy hands”
We Want Picks picks Greg Hardy VALUE
“then he has Greg Hardy over Tai Tuivasa he's just he's just loving the Greg Hardy power here he thinks Greg Hardy comes forward and just blasts to ivasa with those big heavy hands”
MW
MMA Fight Picks - Aaron Weinbaum picks Tai Tuivasa VALUE
“i like that i i think ty's gonna win and like i said you know the odds are always so tight in these EVENT_DETAILS and uh we'll we shall see Gilbert Burns co-main event of the evening taking on Stephen Thompson wonderboy Stephen Thompson now Stephen Thompson uh i'm sorry Gilbert Burns first did just lose to the champ tomorrow oozman before that was a little bit of a two-fight tear there tyrone woodley damien maya um didn't finish tyron woodley did finish damien maya in the first round um a whole lot of grappling bouts to keep him going here but she's got wins over gunner nelson as well i he went yeah i think his last loss was dan hooker but that was down at lightweight and uh makes his way up uh loses camiro gusman in in pretty quick fashion i might add steven winterblake Stephen Thompson you know he's not totally on a tear here but it is a nice two fight win streak jeff neil vincente luke um i believe this is the right fight for him at the right time and if he does win this fight he should probably challenge for the belt after uh colby covington but his two losses you know i i mean it was a decision loss to till and i believe till missed weight in that fight that was 2018. it's just a nice punch that anyone could go get caught with with uh by anthony pettison back in 2019 so interesting uh let's see what the odds have to say oh wow Gilbert Burns is the dog at plus 135 and wonder boy is the favorite at minus 170 and i think that is right okay Dustin Poirier connor the main event of the evening well kids let's see let's see what's up and i'd like to know uh this is working out on twitter or not so oh so it was hilarious my son was just messaging me about uh golf equipment while i was uh trying to do this okay interesting interesting interesting all right so we'll have to rely on the hapsy people main event of the evening kids all right are you ready connor Dustin Poirier part three like i said with ally clinton not so nicey nice um there is no hot sauce and whiskey being exchanged this time i i think and like i said a creepy message from Conor McGregor let's hear this message i think i can get to it here i want to hear the creepy message from Conor McGregor to uh poor a okay so i want to listen let's listen shall we oh donald trump is suing everyone today how about that he's he actually is doing the suing today huh Conor McGregor okay let's see so there was a weird voice thing is it gone already it may be gone no here it is oh lord he is silly hillbilly city hilby or silly city hillbilly but p head i mean NOT_IN_ROSTER_2 would have made more sense is that going to shift the odds in uh anybody's favor i don't think so okay uh let's see here Conor McGregor dan hooker uh those are Dustin Poirier's two most recent wins he hasn't lost a fight since golly 2017 except for the great khabib american menoff beats him you know he made it all the way to third round not the fifth round like the great ally aquinta Conor McGregor Conor McGregor though you know not so much of a stellar record i mean we we think of him as being a world beater but he hasn't won an mma fight since donald cerrone back in 2020 and that was at welterweight and donald you know not at his best form these days okay uh before that he loses to compute de mergament off you know before beating eddie alvarez but like he hadn't beat eddie alvarez since 2016 for the for the belt so interesting here and it's hard to believe we're coming up on five years now five years since uh connor nate diaz fought you're on steroids you're all on steroids all right let's see what the odds have to say because i really don't know i have not checked okay i'm gonna let me refresh him just to make sure because i think it's about even yeah minus 120 even uh plus 100 for connor i would imagine that's kind of one of those things you don't go to the pay or the betting window until closer to this fight because i have a feeling more money will probably come in on Conor McGregor uh making Dustin Poirier a little more of an attractive underdog here at the end so interesting both these guys 32 years old that's crazy uh because you know they got a lot of miles on them and that's it so that's all i got so unless you all have something to say oh i live in vegas bo adams and when a EVENT_DETAILS featuring Conor McGregor it gets nuts well thank you so much for uh for coming by man i was just in vegas a few weeks ago vegas was nuts anyways i mean it was packed you just had to be kind of patient and i guess i i don't know it was a good time though man and uh i enjoyed it i forgot that i still had i lied quinta's uh twitter info on my thing this is what i mean i mean you producer of my own here so i think alan i may start with the video first uh before the call meow podcast which is coming to you soon coming to you soon we're going to be available everywhere podcasts are but thank you beau adams for uh commenting there and i think we're going to let her go here and so until next time i'll be picking fights again enjoy the fights this weekend don't drink and drive and uh yeah wherever you are remember to hit subscribe hit subscribe and uh yeah just a definite reminder there beau adams thank you so much for the compliment he says good show so just remember wherever you are hit subscribe and uh boom the call meow podcast is coming soon it's an honor for me to be uh producing that so until next time like i said shalom please remember to support the podcast by visiting the affiliate links on aaronsaysayswhat.com”
MMA Fight Picks - Aaron Weinbaum picks Tai Tuivasa VALUE
“i like that i i think ty's gonna win and like i said you know the odds are always so tight in these EVENT_DETAILS and uh we'll we shall see Gilbert Burns co-main event of the evening taking on Stephen Thompson wonderboy Stephen Thompson now Stephen Thompson uh i'm sorry Gilbert Burns first did just lose to the champ tomorrow oozman before that was a little bit of a two-fight tear there tyrone woodley damien maya um didn't finish tyron woodley did finish damien maya in the first round um a whole lot of grappling bouts to keep him going here but she's got wins over gunner nelson as well i he went yeah i think his last loss was dan hooker but that was down at lightweight and uh makes his way up uh loses camiro gusman in in pretty quick fashion i might add steven winterblake Stephen Thompson you know he's not totally on a tear here but it is a nice two fight win streak jeff neil vincente luke um i believe this is the right fight for him at the right time and if he does win this fight he should probably challenge for the belt after uh colby covington but his two losses you know i i mean it was a decision loss to till and i believe till missed weight in that fight that was 2018. it's just a nice punch that anyone could go get caught with with uh by anthony pettison back in 2019 so interesting uh let's see what the odds have to say oh wow Gilbert Burns is the dog at plus 135 and wonder boy is the favorite at minus 170 and i think that is right okay Dustin Poirier connor the main event of the evening well kids let's see let's see what's up and i'd like to know uh this is working out on twitter or not so oh so it was hilarious my son was just messaging me about uh golf equipment while i was uh trying to do this okay interesting interesting interesting all right so we'll have to rely on the hapsy people main event of the evening kids all right are you ready connor Dustin Poirier part three like i said with ally clinton not so nicey nice um there is no hot sauce and whiskey being exchanged this time i i think and like i said a creepy message from Conor McGregor let's hear this message i think i can get to it here i want to hear the creepy message from Conor McGregor to uh poor a okay so i want to listen let's listen shall we oh donald trump is suing everyone today how about that he's he actually is doing the suing today huh Conor McGregor okay let's see so there was a weird voice thing is it gone already it may be gone no here it is oh lord he is silly hillbilly city hilby or silly city hillbilly but p head i mean NOT_IN_ROSTER_2 would have made more sense is that going to shift the odds in uh anybody's favor i don't think so okay uh let's see here Conor McGregor dan hooker uh those are Dustin Poirier's two most recent wins he hasn't lost a fight since golly 2017 except for the great khabib american menoff beats him you know he made it all the way to third round not the fifth round like the great ally aquinta Conor McGregor Conor McGregor though you know not so much of a stellar record i mean we we think of him as being a world beater but he hasn't won an mma fight since donald cerrone back in 2020 and that was at welterweight and donald you know not at his best form these days okay uh before that he loses to compute de mergament off you know before beating eddie alvarez but like he hadn't beat eddie alvarez since 2016 for the for the belt so interesting here and it's hard to believe we're coming up on five years now five years since uh connor nate diaz fought you're on steroids you're all on steroids all right let's see what the odds have to say because i really don't know i have not checked okay i'm gonna let me refresh him just to make sure because i think it's about even yeah minus 120 even uh plus 100 for connor i would imagine that's kind of one of those things you don't go to the pay or the betting window until closer to this fight because i have a feeling more money will probably come in on Conor McGregor uh making Dustin Poirier a little more of an attractive underdog here at the end so interesting both these guys 32 years old that's crazy uh because you know they got a lot of miles on them and that's it so that's all i got so unless you all have something to say oh i live in vegas bo adams and when a EVENT_DETAILS featuring Conor McGregor it gets nuts well thank you so much for uh for coming by man i was just in vegas a few weeks ago vegas was nuts anyways i mean it was packed you just had to be kind of patient and i guess i i don't know it was a good time though man and uh i enjoyed it i forgot that i still had i lied quinta's uh twitter info on my thing this is what i mean i mean you producer of my own here so i think alan i may start with the video first uh before the call meow podcast which is coming to you soon coming to you soon we're going to be available everywhere podcasts are but thank you beau adams for uh commenting there and i think we're going to let her go here and so until next time i'll be picking fights again enjoy the fights this weekend don't drink and drive and uh yeah wherever you are remember to hit subscribe hit subscribe and uh yeah just a definite reminder there beau adams thank you so much for the compliment he says good show so just remember wherever you are hit subscribe and uh boom the call meow podcast is coming soon it's an honor for me to be uh producing that so until next time like i said shalom please remember to support the podcast by visiting the affiliate links on aaronsaysayswhat.com”
CO
Covers picks Greg Hardy VALUE
“i think he's actually in a good spot here uh to beat to ibasa”
Covers picks Greg Hardy VALUE
“i think he's actually in a good spot here uh to beat to ibasa”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Greg Hardy VALUE
“i'm actually picking taivassa to lose this fight but Tai Tuivasa is a finisher”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Greg Hardy VALUE
“i'm actually picking taivassa to lose this fight but Tai Tuivasa is a finisher”
WP
We Want Picks picks Tai Tuivasa VALUE
“i think he gets it done so i like trevin giles”
We Want Picks picks Tai Tuivasa VALUE
“i think he gets it done so i like trevin giles”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Tuivasa15-9
L
Sutherland
May '26
L
Teixeira
Feb '26
L
Rozenstruik
Aug '24
L
Tybura
Mar '24
L
Volkov
Sep '23
Hardy7-5
L
Spivac
Mar '22
L
Tuivasa
Jul '21
L
Tybura
Dec '20
W
Greene
Oct '20
W
Castro
May '20