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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Griffin v Condit Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus6 picks · conf 18/99
Griffin 4
2 Condit
MDWM pick Griffin
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Griffin 20-12 VS 32-14 Condit
5'11" height 6'2"
170 lb weight 171 lb
76" reach 76"
40 age 42
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.9 strikes landed / min 3.7
49% striking accuracy 39%
3.8 strikes absorbed / min 2.7
57% striking defence 55%
1.4 takedowns / 15 min 0.6
41% takedown accuracy 46%
68% takedown defence 38%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 1.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TG THE MMA GURU picks Carlos Condit VALUE “i'm gonna go with Carlos Condit here by decision in an upset”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Carlos Condit VALUE “carlos condit and Max Griffin picking the dog Carlos Condit”
TG THE MMA GURU picks Max Griffin “i think he could maybe do that”
WP We Want Picks picks Max Griffin “i have Max Griffin over carlos conde con it worries me because he's just such a tried and true veteran and he can do anything from anywhere but at the end of the day Max Griffin is younger faster stronger and i think he just outpaces outlasts and outworks carlos condit”
MW MMA Fight Picks - Aaron Weinbaum picks Max Griffin VALUE “ooh Max Griffin a minus 190 favorite Carlos Condit carnot a plus 150 underdog i like uh i i do like uh yeah gosh darn it this is this is one of those ones i'm going back and forth but i i like the favorite in this one Max Griffin payne griffith Max Griffin rather and i do hope Carlos Condit Carlos Condit does pull it off so i'm telling pablo here from has thanks for stopping by with uh a professional mma fighter fighter on board we should have a sports category here at haps and that would bring a lot more people here so uh anyway Max Griffin payne griffith Max Griffin rather”
MW MMA Fight Picks - Aaron Weinbaum picks Carlos Condit “ooh Max Griffin a minus 190 favorite Carlos Condit carnot a plus 150 underdog i like uh i i do like uh yeah gosh darn it this is this is one of those ones i'm going back and forth but i i like the favorite in this one Max Griffin payne griffith Max Griffin rather and i do hope Carlos Condit Carlos Condit does pull it off so i'm telling pablo here from has thanks for stopping by with uh a professional mma fighter fighter on board we should have a sports category here at haps and that would bring a lot more people here so uh anyway Max Griffin payne griffith Max Griffin rather”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Max Griffin VALUE “give me Max Griffin as a courtplay”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Carlos Condit VALUE “i'm going Carlos Condit win against Max Griffin i do believe it will probably be unanimous decision” $2.60
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Carlos Condit VALUE “i'm gonna go with my boy Carlos Condit here” $2.50
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Max Griffin VALUE “Max Griffin's gonna beat him guys i just know it i'm thinking of it i'm seeing the fight in my mind and i see Max Griffin Max Griffin winning a unanimous decision” $1.58
Recent form last five, most recent first
Griffin20-12
L Valenzuela Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Curtis Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Chiesa Submission · R3 Dec '24
W Wells Decision · R3 Feb '24
L Morales Decision · R3 Jul '23
Condit32-14
L Griffin Decision · R3 Jul '21
W Brown Decision · R3 Jan '21
W McGee Decision · R3 Oct '20
L Chiesa Submission · R2 Dec '18
L Oliveira Submission · R2 Apr '18