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UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Burns v Thompson Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus7 picks · conf 21/99
Burns 1
6 Thompson
W pick Burns
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Burns 22-9 VS 17-8-1 Thompson
5'10" height 6'0"
170 lb weight 170 lb
71" reach 75"
39 age 43
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.2 strikes landed / min 4.1
48% striking accuracy 46%
3.6 strikes absorbed / min 3.0
52% striking defence 55%
2.1 takedowns / 15 min 0.2
37% takedown accuracy 41%
53% takedown defence 63%
0.5 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TG THE MMA GURU picks Stephen Thompson “29-28 Stephen Thompson”
TG THE MMA GURU picks Gilbert Burns “i might end up going with hamza chimayov here”
WP We Want Picks picks Stephen Thompson “i have Stephen Thompson over Gilbert Burns uh you guys are split over this i see the comment section i think Stephen Thompson is just too long too crafty too big and and just too well at gauging distance for gilbert Gilbert Burns to get in on and make something happen”
CO Covers picks Stephen Thompson VALUE “i think that Stephen Thompson is the rightful favor”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Stephen Thompson VALUE “i think thompson has a good chance to find a finish here”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Stephen Thompson VALUE “i'm riding Stephen Thompson decision potentially or late tko”
TG THE MMA GURU picks Stephen Thompson VALUE “i feel like Stephen Thompson is going to get the win over Gilbert Burns 29-28 unanimous decision”
WP We Want Picks picks Stephen Thompson VALUE “i actually like jerome in in this fight”
WP We Want Picks picks Gilbert Burns VALUE “zalgas is my pick”
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Gilbert Burns VALUE “i'm very excited for the Gilbert Burns for Stephen Thompson fight”
KI KingofCrackdown5095 picks Stephen Thompson VALUE “i have stephen thompson via decision”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Burns22-9
L Malott KO/TKO · R3 Apr '26
L Morales KO/TKO · R1 May '25
L Brady Decision · R5 Sep '24
L Maddalena KO/TKO · R3 Mar '24
L Muhammad Decision · R5 May '23
Thompson17-8-1
L Bonfim Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Buckley KO/TKO · R3 Oct '24
L Rakhmonov Submission · R2 Dec '23
W Holland KO/TKO · R4 Dec '22
L Muhammad Decision · R3 Dec '21