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UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
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KC SS Chimaev vs StricklandFight Card · Middleweight JV TT Van vs TairaFight Card · Flyweight AV WC Volkov vs Cortes-AcostaFight Card · Heavyweight SB JB Brady vs BuckleyFight Card · Welterweight KG JS Green vs StephensFight Card · Catchweight AG OD Gautier vs DiazPreliminary Card · Middleweight JÁ YA Álvarez vs AmosovPreliminary Card · Welterweight GD MR Dawson vs RębeckiPreliminary Card · Lightweight JM JG Miller vs GordonPreliminary Card · Lightweight RK MT Kopylov vs TulioEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight PS WG Sabatini vs GomisEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight BS DS Susurkaev vs SantosEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight CC JO Carpenter vs OchoaEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight
BEST PRICE We back Strickland over Chimaev · Middleweight Our fair value$5.36 NordicBet pays above fair $5.85
Where to back Strickland best price · region · EV vs fair $5.36
US BetRivers $5.25 -2%
UK LiveScore Bet $5.25 -2%
EU NordicBet $5.85 +9%
AU TABtouch $5.25 -2%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $5.26
Consensus148 picks · conf 99/99
Chimaev 116
32 Strickland
FMMBTM pick Chimaev
How it endsmethod calls · Strickland · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $21.45
Decision 3 $7.15
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Chimaev 15-0 VS 30-7 Strickland
6'2" height 6'1"
183 lb weight 185 lb
75" reach 76"
32 age 35
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.4 strikes landed / min 5.8
58% striking accuracy 47%
3.2 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
41% striking defence 58%
4.3 takedowns / 15 min 1.9
46% takedown accuracy 40%
100% takedown defence 78%
2.8 submissions / 15 min 0.5
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market19% vs 17%
Consensus32 of 148 analysts
Sharpest angleStrickland by Decision — 3 of 4 method calls
Recommendation Back Strickland @ $5.85 · fair $5.36 +9% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
PI PickemMMA picks Khamzat Chimaev “one of the we got Khamzat Chimaev taking out Sean Strickland. I'm going to go Khamzat Chimaev going Khamzat Chimaev by submission man by We got Jim Miller taking on Sean Strickland in”
DC Dougies Corner picks Sean Strickland “Sean Strickland knocks out Khamzat Chimaev.”
KO Kyle OHare picks Sean Strickland “think Sean Strickland takes it. Call it believe that Sean Strickland can get it I really do think that Sean Strickland has a path”
TH Thegoatpicks picks Khamzat Chimaev “give me Khamzat Chimaev to beat Sean Strickland”
BM Bozing MMA picks Khamzat Chimaev “NOT_IN_ROSTER_59 is taking Khamzat Chimaev. So I probably like you could like know, I could see there like Khamzat Chimaev could taked down threat Khamzat Chimaev has is is know, Khamzat Chimaev's wrestling is inevitable.”
UW Uncle Weezy picks Khamzat Chimaev “when Khamzat Chimaev finds his finishes is early Kayv or or Khamzat Chimaev”
MT MMA Tugg picks Khamzat Chimaev “Khamzat Khamzat Chimaev is a lock this week. ... Lock number two, Khamzat Khamzat Chimaev, he's not losing.”
MB Martial U Breakdown picks Khamzat Chimaev “I'm picking Khamzat Chimaev by maybe like a round two sub or a round three sub”
RX RX picks Sean Strickland “Give me Sean Strickland by decision to shock the world one more [ __ ] time.”
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Sean Strickland “I do want Sean Strickland to win. But do I believe Uh, but if Sean Strickland is able to kind of keep in the fight, I believe Sean Strickland can give against Sean Strickland”
AM Aniki MMA picks Khamzat Chimaev “picking Khamzat Chimaev to retain his title by unanimous decision”
TG The Fight Guy picks Sean Strickland “I'm gonna go with Sean Strickland”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Chimaev15-0
L Strickland Decision · R5 May '26
W Plessis Decision · R5 Aug '25
W Whittaker Submission · R1 Oct '24
W Usman Decision · R3 Oct '23
W Holland Submission · R1 Sep '22
Strickland30-7
W Chimaev Decision · R5 May '26
W Hernandez KO/TKO · R3 Feb '26
L Plessis Decision · R5 Feb '25
W Costa Decision · R5 Jun '24
L Plessis Decision · R5 Jan '24