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UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
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BEST PRICE We back Sabatini over Gomis · Featherweight Our fair value$1.43 Caesars pays above fair $1.65
Where to back Sabatini best price · region · EV vs fair $1.43
US Caesars $1.65 +15%
UK Unibet (UK) $1.58 +10%
EU Pinnacle $1.63 +14%
AU Ladbrokes AU $1.58 +10%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.67
Consensus68 picks · conf 75/99
Sabatini 58
10 Gomis
BBUSPF pick Sabatini
How it endsmethod calls · Sabatini · crowd line
Submission 9 $3.19
Decision 11 $2.61
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Sabatini 21-5 VS 15-3 Gomis
5'8" height 6'0"
146 lb weight 145 lb
70" reach 73"
35 age 29
Orthodox stance Southpaw
1.9 strikes landed / min 2.6
59% striking accuracy 47%
1.5 strikes absorbed / min 2.4
48% striking defence 54%
4.0 takedowns / 15 min 2.2
44% takedown accuracy 57%
50% takedown defence 80%
2.0 submissions / 15 min 0.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market70% vs 61%
Consensus58 of 68 analysts
Sharpest angleSabatini by Decision — 11 of 20 method calls
Recommendation Back Sabatini @ $1.65 · fair $1.43 +15% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
IN InsomniaMMA picks Pat Sabatini “think that Pat Sabatini is going to ham Sabatini versus William Gomis.”
PI PickemMMA picks Pat Sabatini “I don't pick Pat Sabatini all that I'm going to go Pat Sabatini I think he can dominate this fight and that's Pat Sabatini going to go with the Pat Sabatini”
DC Dougies Corner picks Pat Sabatini “I think we'll go Pat Sabatini. I Pat Sabatini. We've got Pat Sabatini.”
TP The MMA War Room Podcast picks Pat Sabatini “I'm going to go Pat Sabatini by sub” $3.25
RR Rising the Ranks picks William Gomis “I think William Gomis edges.”
UW Uncle Weezy picks Pat Sabatini “going with Pat Sabatini by decision”
MT MMA Tugg picks Pat Sabatini “Pat Sabatini is lock number one. He's not losing.”
RX RX picks Pat Sabatini “I'm going to Pat Sabatini by decision here very easily.”
AM Aniki MMA picks Pat Sabatini “for this fight, I will be picking Pat Sabatini to win by submission”
TG The Fight Guy picks William Gomis “I'm going to go with him submit William Gomis.”
TB Totally Blitzed picks William Gomis “Quick two second proquo. Everything I said about Pat Sabatini was misinformation. That was not the guy I thought he was. I gotta mixed up with the next guy we're going with. So, take everything back. I'm going with William Gomis.”
RM Recon MMA picks Pat Sabatini VALUE “We're going to be going with Pat Sabatini”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Sabatini21-5
W Gomis Decision · R3 May '26
W Mariscal Decision · R3 Nov '25
W Brito Decision · R3 Apr '25
W Pearce Submission · R1 Oct '24
L Lopes KO/TKO · R1 Nov '23
Gomis15-3
L Sabatini Decision · R3 May '26
W Ruchała Decision · R3 Sep '25
L Amil Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Brito Decision · R3 Sep '24
W Ghemmouri KO/TKO · R3 Sep '23