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UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
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BEST PRICE We back Miller over Gordon · Lightweight Our fair value$3.36 Unibet (SE) pays above fair $3.50
Where to back Miller best price · region · EV vs fair $3.36
US FanDuel $3.35 -0%
UK LiveScore Bet $3.25 -3%
EU Unibet (SE) $3.50 +4%
AU PlayUp $3.40 +1%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $3.30
Consensus75 picks · conf 77/99
Miller 24
51 Gordon
MMFM7P pick Miller
How it endsmethod calls · Miller · crowd line
Submission 3 $11.22
Decision 7 $4.81
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Miller 38-19 VS 21-8 Gordon
5'8" height 5'9"
156 lb weight 156 lb
71" reach 68"
42 age 37
Southpaw stance Orthodox
3.0 strikes landed / min 2.9
42% striking accuracy 48%
3.5 strikes absorbed / min 2.0
56% striking defence 62%
1.5 takedowns / 15 min 2.6
44% takedown accuracy 61%
49% takedown defence 81%
1.7 submissions / 15 min 1.2
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market30% vs 29%
Consensus24 of 75 analysts
Sharpest angleMiller by Decision — 7 of 10 method calls
Recommendation Back Miller @ $3.50 · fair $3.36 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
IN InsomniaMMA picks Jared Gordon “I can agree that Jared Gordon beat the take down Jared Gordon, but I just think with how good Jared Gordon striking is”
PI PickemMMA picks Jim Miller “I'm picking Jim Miller”
DC Dougies Corner picks Jared Gordon “We've got Jared Gordon over Jim Miller.”
SP SportsLine picks Jared Gordon “I like Jared Gordon to get it done by round Jared Gordon's pretty tough and I think he's”
TP The MMA War Room Podcast picks Jared Gordon “I think this goes to decision. I'm going Jared Gordon by decision”
WP We Want Picks picks Jared Gordon “And I'm gonna pick Jared Gordon as wins. So, I'm going to pick Jared Gordon”
UW Uncle Weezy picks Jared Gordon “Jared Gordon money line at 75% think that Jared Gordon's recent ready to go, uh Jared Gordon should be able to think it's going to be Jared Gordon by saying, "Jared Gordon”
RX RX picks Jim Miller “I'm going to go Jim Miller here by decision.”
AM Aniki MMA picks Jim Miller “I'm just going to go with the underdog in Jim Miller”
TG The Fight Guy picks Jared Gordon “Miller taking on Jared Gordon. ... I'm going to pick Jared Gordon”
TB Totally Blitzed picks Jim Miller “I got Jim Miller.”
TG The MMA Girl picks Jim Miller “I'm going to give this one to Jim Miller just because he has more experience... I'm going to say Jim Miller just because I think he has the veteran experience that will get him over the edge against Jared Gordon.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Miller38-19
W Gordon Submission · R1 May '26
L Hooper Decision · R3 Apr '25
W Jackson Submission · R1 Nov '24
L Green Decision · R3 Apr '24
W Benítez Submission · R3 Jan '24
Gordon21-8
L Miller Submission · R1 May '26
L García KO/TKO · R3 Sep '25
W Moisés KO/TKO · R1 May '25
L Haqparast Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Madsen KO/TKO · R1 Nov '23