MMA Prophecy
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UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
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KC SS Chimaev vs StricklandFight Card · Middleweight JV TT Van vs TairaFight Card · Flyweight AV WC Volkov vs Cortes-AcostaFight Card · Heavyweight SB JB Brady vs BuckleyFight Card · Welterweight KG JS Green vs StephensFight Card · Catchweight AG OD Gautier vs DiazPreliminary Card · Middleweight JÁ YA Álvarez vs AmosovPreliminary Card · Welterweight GD MR Dawson vs RębeckiPreliminary Card · Lightweight JM JG Miller vs GordonPreliminary Card · Lightweight RK MT Kopylov vs TulioEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight PS WG Sabatini vs GomisEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight BS DS Susurkaev vs SantosEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight CC JO Carpenter vs OchoaEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Amosov v Álvarez Welterweight Our fair value $1.62 best price $1.56 PASS · MARKET AGREES
Where to back Amosov best price · region · EV vs fair $1.62
US FanDuel $1.56 -4%
UK LiveScore Bet $1.55 -4%
EU Unibet (SE) $1.56 -4%
AU TABtouch $1.55 -4%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.59
Consensus70 picks · conf 76/99
Álvarez 28
42 Amosov
MDMCST pick Álvarez
How it endsmethod calls · Amosov · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $17.79
Submission 5 $3.56
Decision 5 $3.56
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Álvarez 23-3 VS 29-1 Amosov
6'3" height 6'0"
171 lb weight 171 lb
77" reach 75"
33 age 32
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.9 strikes landed / min —
62% striking accuracy —
4.4 strikes absorbed / min —
54% striking defence —
2.5 takedowns / 15 min —
37% takedown accuracy —
50% takedown defence —
0.8 submissions / 15 min —
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market62% vs 64%
Consensus42 of 70 analysts
Sharpest angleAmosov by Submission — 5 of 11 method calls
Recommendation Pass — no edge model agrees with the market PASS
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
IN InsomniaMMA picks Yaroslav Amosov “I love Yaroslav Amosov. ... give me Yaroslav Amosov to get this round. Yaroslav Amosov is a [ __ ] great fight for Yaroslav Amosov.”
TP The MMA War Room Podcast picks Yaroslav Amosov “Yaroslav Amosov is going to get this one done” $1.54
WP We Want Picks picks Yaroslav Amosov “Yaroslav Amosov should win this fight”
BM Bozing MMA picks Yaroslav Amosov “Yaroslav Amosov by decision. I think we'll be with Yaroslav Amosov. I think I think I'll be able decision for Yaroslav Amosov.”
RR Rising the Ranks picks Yaroslav Amosov “He me Yaroslav Amosov by submission”
UW Uncle Weezy picks Joel Álvarez VALUE “I like Joel Álvarez from there... Fight picking uh Joel Álvarez... Joel Álvarez by KO is the pick” $2.15
RX RX picks Joel Álvarez “I'm going to go decision here for Joel.”
AM Aniki MMA picks Yaroslav Amosov “I'm going to be picking Yaroslav Amosov to win by submission”
TG The Fight Guy picks Joel Álvarez “Joel Álvarez has looked amazing going to go with Joel Álvarez. I think I'm going to go with Joel Álvarez to win”
RM Recon MMA picks Yaroslav Amosov VALUE “we're going to say he gets it done with a decision”
TH TheWeasle picks Yaroslav Amosov “So, I'm going go with Yaroslav Amosov.”
TM Third Hall MMA picks Joel Álvarez “I'm gonna pick Joel Álvarez to win. Yeah, we're just going to pick Joel Álvarez to Yaroslav Amosov.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Álvarez23-3
L Amosov Submission · R2 May '26
W Luque Decision · R3 Oct '25
W Klose KO/TKO · R1 Dec '24
W Brener KO/TKO · R3 Aug '24
W Diakiese Submission · R2 Jul '23
Amosov29-1
W Álvarez Submission · R2 May '26
W Magny Submission · R1 Dec '25