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UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Gautier v Diaz Middleweight Our fair value $1.08 best price — PASS · MARKET AGREES
Where to back Gautier best price · region · EV vs fair $1.08
No regional prices quoted for this fight yet.
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.12
Consensus69 picks · conf 75/99
Gautier 64
5 Diaz
FMGBMM pick Gautier
How it endsmethod calls · Gautier · crowd line
KO/TKO 9 $1.08
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Gautier 10-1 VS 21-12-2 Diaz
6'4" height 6'6"
186 lb weight 257 lb
81" reach 77"
24 age —
Switch stance Southpaw
5.3 strikes landed / min 5.6
71% striking accuracy 59%
1.2 strikes absorbed / min 4.5
56% striking defence 51%
0.0 takedowns / 15 min 2.3
0% takedown accuracy 36%
90% takedown defence 69%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Consensus64 of 69 analysts
Sharpest angleGautier by KO/TKO — 9 of 9 method calls
Recommendation Pass — no edge model agrees with the market PASS
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
IN InsomniaMMA picks Ateba Gautier “just give me Ateba Gautier to [ __ ] lost to Osman Diaz”
PI PickemMMA picks Ateba Gautier “Ateba Gautier taking on Osman Diaz. I'm gonna go Ateba Gautier here. Round one KO.”
DC Dougies Corner picks Ateba Gautier “I'm calling a Ateba Gautier to beat Osman Diaz.”
TP The MMA War Room Podcast picks Ateba Gautier “Ateba Gautier first round knockout”
TP The Ranch Boxing & Podcast picks Ateba Gautier “I'm taking Ateba Gautier to get back in that knockout uh win column”
MT MMA Tugg picks Ateba Gautier “Ateba Gautier by knockout, by the way. Ateba Gautier by knockout.”
RX RX picks Ateba Gautier “Ateba Gautier by Knockout first lock of the night.”
AM Aniki MMA picks Ateba Gautier “Ateba Gautier wins this probably by round two TKO”
TG The Fight Guy picks Osman Diaz “I was at Osman Diaz to win. I on Osman Diaz. Osman Diaz. This is a fight. I had money on Osman Diaz.”
UN USA News picks Ateba Gautier “Prediction: Ateba Gautier gets it done and possibly in spectacular fashion.”
TG The MMA Girl picks Ateba Gautier “I would bet on Ateba Gautier.”
RM Recon MMA picks Ateba Gautier VALUE “Ateba Gautier round one KO has got to be the pick”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Gautier10-1
W Diaz KO/TKO · R2 May '26
W Pulyaev Decision · R3 Jan '26
W Vines KO/TKO · R1 Oct '25
W Medina KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25
Diaz21-12-2
L Gautier KO/TKO · R2 May '26