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UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
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KC SS Chimaev vs StricklandFight Card · Middleweight JV TT Van vs TairaFight Card · Flyweight AV WC Volkov vs Cortes-AcostaFight Card · Heavyweight SB JB Brady vs BuckleyFight Card · Welterweight KG JS Green vs StephensFight Card · Catchweight AG OD Gautier vs DiazPreliminary Card · Middleweight JÁ YA Álvarez vs AmosovPreliminary Card · Welterweight GD MR Dawson vs RębeckiPreliminary Card · Lightweight JM JG Miller vs GordonPreliminary Card · Lightweight RK MT Kopylov vs TulioEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight PS WG Sabatini vs GomisEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight BS DS Susurkaev vs SantosEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight CC JO Carpenter vs OchoaEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight
BEST PRICE We back Green over Stephens · Catchweight Our fair value$1.25 LeoVegas (SE) pays above fair $1.30
Where to back Green best price · region · EV vs fair $1.25
US FanDuel $1.25 -0%
UK Betfair Sportsbook $1.25 -0%
EU LeoVegas (SE) $1.30 +4%
AU PlayUp $1.28 +2%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.25
Consensus92 picks · conf 82/99
Green 78
14 Stephens
MDMTWC pick Green
How it endsmethod calls · Green · crowd line
KO/TKO 3 $7.94
Submission 1 $23.82
Decision 15 $1.59
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Green 34-17-1 VS 29-22 Stephens
5'10" height 5'9"
155 lb weight 155 lb
71" reach 71"
39 age 40
Orthodox stance Orthodox
6.4 strikes landed / min 3.2
53% striking accuracy 40%
3.7 strikes absorbed / min 3.0
62% striking defence 58%
1.2 takedowns / 15 min 1.2
39% takedown accuracy 38%
74% takedown defence 65%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 0.4
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market80% vs 77%
Consensus78 of 92 analysts
Sharpest angleGreen by Decision — 15 of 19 method calls
Recommendation Back Green @ $1.30 · fair $1.25 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
IN InsomniaMMA picks King Green “Give me King Green to get UNC and King Green is going to pull it King Green.”
PI PickemMMA picks King Green “King Green is going to win this fight.”
DC Dougies Corner picks King Green “We'll go with King Green.”
TP The MMA War Room Podcast picks Jeremy Stephens VALUE “I'm going to say Jeremy Stephens by KO” $4.00
WP We Want Picks picks King Green “King Green should win this fight.”
TP The Ranch Boxing & Podcast picks King Green “I see King Green with a knockout somewhere”
BM Bozing MMA picks King Green “I got I got King Green”
TP The Surprise Jab Podcast picks King Green “give me King Green to defeat Jeremy Stephens. But yeah, King Green over Jeremy Stephens.”
UW Uncle Weezy picks King Green “King Green by decision sitting got Mateusz Rębecki KO1, Pat Sabatini 2, King Green Ko3, four-legg is King Green decision... I think King Green might be King Green, if he fights smart, is going to for here.”
RX RX picks King Green “give me King Green by decision pretty [ __ ] easily”
AM Aniki MMA picks King Green “picking King Green to win by a 3027 decision”
HP Honey Badger Hour Podcast picks King Green “I'm gonna go with King Green just because he's been in the UFC a little bit longer... So, I'm going with King Green.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Green34-17-1
W Stephens Submission · R1 May '26
W Zellhuber KO/TKO · R2 Feb '26
W Jr. Decision · R3 Dec '25
L Ruffy KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25
L Pimblett Submission · R1 Jul '24
Stephens29-22
L Green Submission · R1 May '26
L Jones Decision · R3 May '25
L Gamrot Submission · R1 Jul '21
L Kattar KO/TKO · R2 May '20
L Rodríguez Decision · R3 Oct '19