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UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
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BEST PRICE We back Rębecki over Dawson · Lightweight Our fair value$2.28 Unibet (SE) pays above fair $2.43
Where to back Rębecki best price · region · EV vs fair $2.28
US BetMGM $2.25 -1%
UK LeoVegas $2.20 -3%
EU Unibet (SE) $2.43 +7%
AU TAB $2.30 +1%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $2.33
Consensus84 picks · conf 80/99
Dawson 43
41 Rębecki
FMGMPF pick Dawson
How it endsmethod calls · Rębecki · crowd line
KO/TKO 11 $2.28
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Dawson 23-3-1 VS 20-4 Rębecki
5'10" height 5'7"
156 lb weight 155 lb
72" reach 66"
32 age 33
Switch stance Southpaw
3.1 strikes landed / min 4.7
52% striking accuracy 48%
2.0 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
45% striking defence 54%
3.6 takedowns / 15 min 3.8
38% takedown accuracy 75%
57% takedown defence 45%
1.2 submissions / 15 min 0.8
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market44% vs 41%
Consensus41 of 84 analysts
Sharpest angleRębecki by KO/TKO — 11 of 11 method calls
Recommendation Back Rębecki @ $2.43 · fair $2.28 +7% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
IN InsomniaMMA picks Mateusz Rębecki “go ahead and give me Mateusz Rębecki getting this Mateusz Rębecki man. I I love this guy. I [ __ ] love Mateusz Rębecki.”
PI PickemMMA picks Mateusz Rębecki “I'm going to go Mateusz Rębecki on this don't think Mateusz Rębecki is going to be easy round. I think her best the way Mateusz Rębecki Mateusz Rębecki in this one. I think Mateusz Rębecki can Osman Diaz. I'm picking Mateusz Rębecki by KO.”
SP SportsLine picks Grant Dawson “Grant Dawson on the money line.”
TP The MMA War Room Podcast picks Mateusz Rębecki VALUE “give me Mateusz Rębecki by” $2.40
WP We Want Picks picks Mateusz Rębecki “I'm going to pick Mateusz Rębecki. I'm also going to put Mateusz Rębecki in my lineup”
UW Uncle Weezy picks Grant Dawson “Going with uh Grant Dawson KO.”
MT MMA Tugg picks Mateusz Rębecki VALUE “Mateusz Rębecki is going to be a dog this week.”
RX RX picks Mateusz Rębecki “I'm going to go Mateusz Rębecki by knockout in second.”
AM Aniki MMA picks Mateusz Rębecki VALUE “in this fight, I will be taking the underdog in Mateusz Rębecki”
TG The Fight Guy picks Grant Dawson “I'm gonna go Grant Dawson to win... So, with Grant Dawson to win a decision.”
RM Recon MMA picks Grant Dawson “wrestle Max his way to a decision victory”
AA All in Aidan picks Grant Dawson “taking Grant Dawson's moneyline”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Dawson23-3-1
W Rębecki Submission · R3 May '26
L Torres KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
W Ferreira Decision · R3 Jan '25
W García KO/TKO · R2 Oct '24
W Solecki Decision · R3 Jun '24
Rębecki20-4
L Dawson Submission · R3 May '26
L Klein Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Duncan Decision · R3 Aug '25
W Orolbai Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Ferreira KO/TKO · R3 May '24