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Edwards vs UsmanMain Card · Welterweight
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Gaethje vs FizievMain Card · Lightweight
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BB
Nelson vs BarberenaMain Card · Welterweight
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Maia vs O'NeillMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
MV
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Vettori vs DolidzeMain Card · Middleweight
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MA
Shore vs AmirkhaniPreliminary Card · Featherweight
CD
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Duncan vs MoralesPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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SP
Ashmouz vs PattersonPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Mokaev vs FilhoPreliminary Card · Flyweight
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Murphy vs SantosEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight
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Duncan vs TodorovićEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
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Hadley vs GordonEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
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Wood vs CarolinaEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
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Herbert vs KleinEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Gaethje v Fiziev
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Gaethje 27-5
VS
13-5 Fiziev
5'11"
height
5'8"
155 lb
weight
155 lb
70"
reach
71"
37
age
33
Orthodox
stance
Switch
7.4
strikes landed / min
4.9
57%
striking accuracy
51%
5.8
strikes absorbed / min
5.0
54%
striking defence
49%
0.7
takedowns / 15 min
0.3
34%
takedown accuracy
40%
68%
takedown defence
89%
0.2
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
RU
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“I'm gonna pick Justin Gaethje here”
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“I'm gonna pick Justin Gaethje here”
WP
We Want Picks picks Rafael Fiziev VALUE
“Rafael Fiziev should win this fight”
We Want Picks picks Rafael Fiziev VALUE
“Rafael Fiziev should win this fight”
PR
Premium-Picks picks Rafael Fiziev VALUE
“physiv has to be the pick way more technical it's gonna be a striking match for zeeves the striker and gaichi is tough as he's been and everything he's been wobbled in every fight lately so I gotta go physique here if I lose my money engage she pulls it off hey props to him and also more props to gaichi 2 for accepting this fight because nobody wants to fight physi he couldn't get a top fighter to accept a fight with him Justin did it”
Premium-Picks picks Rafael Fiziev VALUE
“physiv has to be the pick way more technical it's gonna be a striking match for zeeves the striker and gaichi is tough as he's been and everything he's been wobbled in every fight lately so I gotta go physique here if I lose my money engage she pulls it off hey props to him and also more props to gaichi 2 for accepting this fight because nobody wants to fight physi he couldn't get a top fighter to accept a fight with him Justin did it”
MP
Mike's MMA Picks picks Rafael Fiziev VALUE
“I think that he gets this done likely in spectacular fashion”
Mike's MMA Picks picks Rafael Fiziev VALUE
“I think that he gets this done likely in spectacular fashion”
MW
Making the Walk picks Rafael Fiziev
“I Rafael Fiziev on this one even though you know”
Making the Walk picks Rafael Fiziev
“I Rafael Fiziev on this one even though you know”
BF
BURN FACTORY picks Rafael Fiziev
“Rafael Fiziev is going to walk away as the winner... so you're taking Rafael Fiziev... I think Rafael Fiziev gonna do it... Rafael Fiziev is going to win”
BURN FACTORY picks Rafael Fiziev
“Rafael Fiziev is going to walk away as the winner... so you're taking Rafael Fiziev... I think Rafael Fiziev gonna do it... Rafael Fiziev is going to win”
DR
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Justin Gaethje
“yeah I know you you big like Justin Gaethje all day he's still being dominant in the fight”
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Justin Gaethje
“yeah I know you you big like Justin Gaethje all day he's still being dominant in the fight”
TT
TFB's Talks picks Rafael Fiziev
“I'm picking Rafael Fiziev for this fight”
TFB's Talks picks Rafael Fiziev
“I'm picking Rafael Fiziev for this fight”
HB
Half The Battle picks Rafael Fiziev
“I do favor Fiziev”
Half The Battle picks Rafael Fiziev
“I do favor Fiziev”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Rafael Fiziev VALUE
“I'm going Rafael Fiziev because he's so much better technically with striking”
MMA EXPERTS picks Rafael Fiziev VALUE
“I'm going Rafael Fiziev because he's so much better technically with striking”
MJ
MMA JOEY picks Justin Gaethje
“do not count out Justin Gaethje gaichi in this fight”
MMA JOEY picks Justin Gaethje
“do not count out Justin Gaethje gaichi in this fight”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Gaethje27-5
W
Topuria
Jun '26
W
Pimblett
Jan '26
W
Fiziev
Mar '25
L
Holloway
Apr '24
W
Poirier
Jul '23
Fiziev13-5
W
Torres
Jun '26
L
Ruffy
Feb '26
W
Bahamondes
Jun '25
L
Gaethje
Mar '25
L
Gamrot
Sep '23