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Nelson vs BarberenaMain Card · Welterweight
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Edwards vs UsmanMain Card · Welterweight
JG
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Gaethje vs FizievMain Card · Lightweight
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BB
Nelson vs BarberenaMain Card · Welterweight
JM
CO
Maia vs O'NeillMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
MV
RD
Vettori vs DolidzeMain Card · Middleweight
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MA
Shore vs AmirkhaniPreliminary Card · Featherweight
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Duncan vs MoralesPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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SP
Ashmouz vs PattersonPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Mokaev vs FilhoPreliminary Card · Flyweight
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Murphy vs SantosEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight
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Duncan vs TodorovićEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
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Hadley vs GordonEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
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Wood vs CarolinaEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Nelson v Barberena
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Nelson 19-5-1
VS
18-12 Barberena
5'11"
height
6'0"
170 lb
weight
186 lb
72"
reach
72"
37
age
37
Switch
stance
Southpaw
1.8
strikes landed / min
5.3
61%
striking accuracy
48%
3.0
strikes absorbed / min
4.6
49%
striking defence
44%
1.9
takedowns / 15 min
0.1
59%
takedown accuracy
22%
66%
takedown defence
50%
1.0
submissions / 15 min
0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
RU
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Gunnar Nelson
“I like Gunnar Nelson a lot here”
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Gunnar Nelson
“I like Gunnar Nelson a lot here”
WP
We Want Picks picks Gunnar Nelson
“I do think Gunnar Nelson wins”
We Want Picks picks Gunnar Nelson
“I do think Gunnar Nelson wins”
PR
Premium-Picks picks Gunnar Nelson VALUE
“Gunner Gunnar Nelson has to be the pick I'm pretty confident in that I mean barbarina it's not like he's a one-hitter quitter huge knockout artist anyways he's usually a volume guy that likes to put the jab on you and break you and then drop you and finish you I I don't think that's gonna happen Gunnar Gunnar Nelson's gonna come out with that wide goofy karate stance he's gonna be prancing around the cage pretending he's freaking Wonder Boy Stephen Thompson um but really eventually he's going to get a body lock he's going to get a trip I think you should find the submission”
Premium-Picks picks Gunnar Nelson VALUE
“Gunner Gunnar Nelson has to be the pick I'm pretty confident in that I mean barbarina it's not like he's a one-hitter quitter huge knockout artist anyways he's usually a volume guy that likes to put the jab on you and break you and then drop you and finish you I I don't think that's gonna happen Gunnar Gunnar Nelson's gonna come out with that wide goofy karate stance he's gonna be prancing around the cage pretending he's freaking Wonder Boy Stephen Thompson um but really eventually he's going to get a body lock he's going to get a trip I think you should find the submission”
KU
Kunath picks Bryan Barberena VALUE
“give me Bryan Barberena to win this fight”
Kunath picks Bryan Barberena VALUE
“give me Bryan Barberena to win this fight”
MW
Making the Walk picks Gunnar Nelson
“doesn't get submitted Gunnar Nelson is um is right when Gunnar Nelson's wheelhouse if Gunnar Nelson can get it to the Bryan Barberena”
Making the Walk picks Gunnar Nelson
“doesn't get submitted Gunnar Nelson is um is right when Gunnar Nelson's wheelhouse if Gunnar Nelson can get it to the Bryan Barberena”
DR
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Bryan Barberena
“I'm gonna go for Bryan Barberena”
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Bryan Barberena
“I'm gonna go for Bryan Barberena”
NN
Noah Nwadei picks Gunnar Nelson
“I will be choosing Gunnar Nelson on this one”
Noah Nwadei picks Gunnar Nelson
“I will be choosing Gunnar Nelson on this one”
DR
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Gunnar Nelson
“I'm gonna go for yeah without a doubt maybe second maybe third round where Gunnar Nelson's exhausted himself a bit and I'll take Gunnar Nelson”
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Gunnar Nelson
“I'm gonna go for yeah without a doubt maybe second maybe third round where Gunnar Nelson's exhausted himself a bit and I'll take Gunnar Nelson”
TT
TFB's Talks picks Gunnar Nelson
“I'm gonna go with Gunnar Nelson by decision”
TFB's Talks picks Gunnar Nelson
“I'm gonna go with Gunnar Nelson by decision”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Bryan Barberena VALUE
“then my prediction is going to be Bryan Barberena Bryan Barberena Barberena”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Bryan Barberena VALUE
“then my prediction is going to be Bryan Barberena Bryan Barberena Barberena”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Nelson19-5-1
L
Holland
Mar '25
W
Barberena
Mar '23
W
Sato
Mar '22
L
Burns
Sep '19
L
Edwards
Mar '19
Barberena18-12
L
Meerschaert
Mar '24
L
Muradov
Jul '23
L
Nelson
Mar '23
L
Anjos
Dec '22
W
Lawler
Jul '22