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Gaethje vs FizievMain Card · Lightweight
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Nelson vs BarberenaMain Card · Welterweight
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Vettori vs DolidzeMain Card · Middleweight
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Shore vs AmirkhaniPreliminary Card · Featherweight
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Ashmouz vs PattersonPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Mokaev vs FilhoPreliminary Card · Flyweight
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Murphy vs SantosEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight
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Duncan vs TodorovićEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
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Hadley vs GordonEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Mokaev v Filho
Flyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Mokaev 13-0
VS
17-5 Filho
5'7"
height
5'7"
126 lb
weight
135 lb
70"
reach
69"
25
age
33
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
1.6
strikes landed / min
3.5
45%
striking accuracy
41%
1.4
strikes absorbed / min
3.3
57%
striking defence
54%
5.3
takedowns / 15 min
2.3
41%
takedown accuracy
74%
25%
takedown defence
71%
0.8
submissions / 15 min
0.7
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
WP
We Want Picks picks Muhammad Mokaev VALUE
“Muhammad Mokaev is going to get the takedowns and going to win this fight”
We Want Picks picks Muhammad Mokaev VALUE
“Muhammad Mokaev is going to get the takedowns and going to win this fight”
SD
Santino DeFranco picks Muhammad Mokaev
“I think the monkey have that we saw last time this might be a very close fight but if we keep seeing the improvements that we have been seeing with him he may end up coming out here and you know maybe filo shoot Smokey have jumps through Guillotine he finishes it that's a wrap I I don't really know this is the other parlay Buster that I wouldn't touch just because at the price and he's actually fighting a really good opponent I think mokiev is going to win this but at -850 you're not getting a ton of reward out of putting him in any bets putting him in a parlay honestly it's nothing but risk so I wouldn't put all of your eggs in this mokaya basket I mean if you just love him you want to bet minus 850 straight up great um I I don't see a lot of value in it so just just be careful on this one I like more kayev I think he's phenomenal I think he's fighting actually a really really good guy um who fortunately can't wrestle that well so that that's the key to this fight is he can't wrestle that well I'm okay have on top should be fine um okay I've you know I think wins it just I don't know there's what's the value in it you know you kind of want risk reward um and I don't know that there's too much reward on this one”
Santino DeFranco picks Muhammad Mokaev
“I think the monkey have that we saw last time this might be a very close fight but if we keep seeing the improvements that we have been seeing with him he may end up coming out here and you know maybe filo shoot Smokey have jumps through Guillotine he finishes it that's a wrap I I don't really know this is the other parlay Buster that I wouldn't touch just because at the price and he's actually fighting a really good opponent I think mokiev is going to win this but at -850 you're not getting a ton of reward out of putting him in any bets putting him in a parlay honestly it's nothing but risk so I wouldn't put all of your eggs in this mokaya basket I mean if you just love him you want to bet minus 850 straight up great um I I don't see a lot of value in it so just just be careful on this one I like more kayev I think he's phenomenal I think he's fighting actually a really really good guy um who fortunately can't wrestle that well so that that's the key to this fight is he can't wrestle that well I'm okay have on top should be fine um okay I've you know I think wins it just I don't know there's what's the value in it you know you kind of want risk reward um and I don't know that there's too much reward on this one”
PR
Premium-Picks picks Muhammad Mokaev VALUE
“the pick's got to be Muhammad Mokaev but Gabriel Santos is 10-0 he appears dangerous I don't love Muhammad Mokaev by any means uh but Gabriel Santos is coming in on one month notice newcomer making his debut the pick's gonna be Muhammad Mokaev I don't think Philo is going to be able to submit him”
$1.11
Premium-Picks picks Muhammad Mokaev VALUE
“the pick's got to be Muhammad Mokaev but Gabriel Santos is 10-0 he appears dangerous I don't love Muhammad Mokaev by any means uh but Gabriel Santos is coming in on one month notice newcomer making his debut the pick's gonna be Muhammad Mokaev I don't think Philo is going to be able to submit him”
$1.11
DR
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Muhammad Mokaev
“picked Muhammad Mokaev anyway because I'm just super high on him... I think Muhammad Mokaev everyone yeah yeah I think Muhammad Mokaev's gonna win”
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Muhammad Mokaev
“picked Muhammad Mokaev anyway because I'm just super high on him... I think Muhammad Mokaev everyone yeah yeah I think Muhammad Mokaev's gonna win”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Muhammad Mokaev
“I'm gonna side with Muhammad Muhammad Mokaev makayev to win this match up”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Muhammad Mokaev
“I'm gonna side with Muhammad Muhammad Mokaev makayev to win this match up”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jafel Filho
“I think they're continuing to build up a very young McIver I think they're being very careful with this guy... so I think he probably survives here I'm going to take Muhammad Kai off to win this fight by decision”
$1.12
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jafel Filho
“I think they're continuing to build up a very young McIver I think they're being very careful with this guy... so I think he probably survives here I'm going to take Muhammad Kai off to win this fight by decision”
$1.12
WP
We Want Picks picks Muhammad Mokaev VALUE
“Muhammad Mokaev is the pick”
We Want Picks picks Muhammad Mokaev VALUE
“Muhammad Mokaev is the pick”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Mokaev13-0
W
Kape
Jul '24
W
Perez
Mar '24
W
Elliott
Oct '23
W
Filho
Mar '23
W
Gordon
Oct '22
Filho17-5
L
Durden
Apr '26
W
Carpenter
Oct '25
L
Nascimento
May '25
W
Osbourne
Mar '24
W
Bárez
Jul '23