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Gaethje vs FizievMain Card · Lightweight
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Nelson vs BarberenaMain Card · Welterweight
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Maia vs O'NeillMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
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Vettori vs DolidzeMain Card · Middleweight
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Shore vs AmirkhaniPreliminary Card · Featherweight
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Duncan vs MoralesPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Ashmouz vs PattersonPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Mokaev vs FilhoPreliminary Card · Flyweight
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Murphy vs SantosEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight
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Duncan vs TodorovićEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
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Hadley vs GordonEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
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Wood vs CarolinaEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Murphy v Santos
Featherweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Murphy 17-0-1
VS
11-2 Santos
5'9"
height
5'9"
146 lb
weight
145 lb
73"
reach
70"
34
age
29
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.8
strikes landed / min
4.7
54%
striking accuracy
59%
2.7
strikes absorbed / min
4.8
60%
striking defence
47%
1.8
takedowns / 15 min
3.4
54%
takedown accuracy
52%
48%
takedown defence
85%
0.6
submissions / 15 min
0.8
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
RU
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Lerone Murphy
“I'm landing on Lerone Murphy”
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Lerone Murphy
“I'm landing on Lerone Murphy”
WP
We Want Picks picks Lerone Murphy
“Laurel Murphy probably wins this because of his dangerous hands and his UFC level of experience”
We Want Picks picks Lerone Murphy
“Laurel Murphy probably wins this because of his dangerous hands and his UFC level of experience”
PR
Premium-Picks picks Lerone Murphy
“the pick's got to be Lerone Murphy but Gabriel Santos is 10-0 he appears dangerous I don't love Lerone Murphy by any means uh but Gabriel Santos is coming in on one month notice newcomer making his debut the pick's gonna be Lerone Murphy”
Premium-Picks picks Lerone Murphy
“the pick's got to be Lerone Murphy but Gabriel Santos is 10-0 he appears dangerous I don't love Lerone Murphy by any means uh but Gabriel Santos is coming in on one month notice newcomer making his debut the pick's gonna be Lerone Murphy”
KU
Kunath picks Gabriel Santos VALUE
“I think that Gabriel Santos can win this fight”
Kunath picks Gabriel Santos VALUE
“I think that Gabriel Santos can win this fight”
KU
Kunath picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“Lerone Murphy for that knockout upside”
Kunath picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“Lerone Murphy for that knockout upside”
BM
Bedtime MMA picks Lerone Murphy
“I'm gonna pick Lerone Murphy by decision 29-28 win for larone Murphy”
Bedtime MMA picks Lerone Murphy
“I'm gonna pick Lerone Murphy by decision 29-28 win for larone Murphy”
DR
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Lerone Murphy
“go for Lerone Murphy I think Lerone Murphy will do”
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Lerone Murphy
“go for Lerone Murphy I think Lerone Murphy will do”
WP
We Want Picks picks Lerone Murphy
“I'm going with larone in this matchup”
We Want Picks picks Lerone Murphy
“I'm going with larone in this matchup”
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“I think that the newcomer It's Gonna Get The Knockout”
$1.48
Walk The Line MMA picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“I think that the newcomer It's Gonna Get The Knockout”
$1.48
CL
Clenbat picks Gabriel Santos
“I'm gonna go with Gabriel Gabriel Santos Gabriel Santos”
Clenbat picks Gabriel Santos
“I'm gonna go with Gabriel Gabriel Santos Gabriel Santos”
FF
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“I got Lerone Murphy I feel like he's gonna pull it out man he's fought good competition went to a drive it's a bear to call Golf and Dakota's good trains of khabib and them and then cut the kogob too”
$2.57
Fight Fiend Forecast picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“I got Lerone Murphy I feel like he's gonna pull it out man he's fought good competition went to a drive it's a bear to call Golf and Dakota's good trains of khabib and them and then cut the kogob too”
$2.57
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Murphy17-0-1
L
Evloev
Mar '26
W
Pico
Aug '25
W
Emmett
Apr '25
W
Ige
Oct '24
W
Barboza
May '24
Santos11-2
W
Jenkins
Feb '25
W
Zha
Sep '24
L
Onama
Jun '23
L
Murphy
Mar '23