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Gaethje vs FizievMain Card · Lightweight
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Nelson vs BarberenaMain Card · Welterweight
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Vettori vs DolidzeMain Card · Middleweight
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Shore vs AmirkhaniPreliminary Card · Featherweight
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Ashmouz vs PattersonPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Mokaev vs FilhoPreliminary Card · Flyweight
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Murphy vs SantosEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Ashmouz v Patterson
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Ashmouz 8-1
VS
14-2-1 Patterson
5'9"
height
6'3"
155 lb
weight
170 lb
69"
reach
78"
31
age
30
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
2.9
strikes landed / min
5.1
50%
striking accuracy
57%
4.5
strikes absorbed / min
2.1
55%
striking defence
57%
4.8
takedowns / 15 min
1.3
50%
takedown accuracy
31%
60%
takedown defence
71%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
1.9
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
RU
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Yanal Ashmouz
“but yeah I'm gonna go with Yanal Ashmouz uh um but yeah I'm gonna go with Yanal Ashmouz uh um but yeah I'm gonna go with Yanal Ashmouz”
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Yanal Ashmouz
“but yeah I'm gonna go with Yanal Ashmouz uh um but yeah I'm gonna go with Yanal Ashmouz uh um but yeah I'm gonna go with Yanal Ashmouz”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Sam Patterson
“officially it's very low confidence towards Sam Patterson”
$1.39
MMA EXPERTS picks Sam Patterson
“officially it's very low confidence towards Sam Patterson”
$1.39
WP
We Want Picks picks Yanal Ashmouz VALUE
“I think wins this fight outright we're not even talking about oh he's a good Underdog because he may score well in a loss I think he wins”
We Want Picks picks Yanal Ashmouz VALUE
“I think wins this fight outright we're not even talking about oh he's a good Underdog because he may score well in a loss I think he wins”
WP
We Want Picks picks Yanal Ashmouz
“I like the under on his fantasy points here for Sam Patterson”
We Want Picks picks Yanal Ashmouz
“I like the under on his fantasy points here for Sam Patterson”
SD
Santino DeFranco picks Sam Patterson VALUE
“outside of ashmont's Landing a wild overhand I I don't know how he wins like I was trying to find a way but with the range of Patterson um you know I I think that range is really going to be hard to for ajmaz to get in on and then when he does he's gonna get clinched he's gonna get neat in the face and if it goes to the ground I mean Patterson actually has he attacks some decent darts and and it kind of chokes I mean long people like that should you better um but man not not amazed not impressed but but I think uh Patterson's going to get the win”
Santino DeFranco picks Sam Patterson VALUE
“outside of ashmont's Landing a wild overhand I I don't know how he wins like I was trying to find a way but with the range of Patterson um you know I I think that range is really going to be hard to for ajmaz to get in on and then when he does he's gonna get clinched he's gonna get neat in the face and if it goes to the ground I mean Patterson actually has he attacks some decent darts and and it kind of chokes I mean long people like that should you better um but man not not amazed not impressed but but I think uh Patterson's going to get the win”
PR
Premium-Picks picks Sam Patterson
“give me Sam Patterson not betting money on this fight they're both newcomers uh let's see what they got I may the best man win”
Premium-Picks picks Sam Patterson
“give me Sam Patterson not betting money on this fight they're both newcomers uh let's see what they got I may the best man win”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Sam Patterson VALUE
“I think Sam Patterson probably Subs them at some point um but Sam Patterson's like a minute loser like Sam Patterson striking defense is very bad um I've seen him heard I've seen him knocked out Sam Patterson has no takedown defense so yeah I think ashmost can go in here potentially knock out a very hittable Sam Patterson or you know take down Sam Patterson who has a pretty questionable takedown defense of course um Sam Patterson is a very good submission game and that's why I do like Sam Patterson to win the fight”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Sam Patterson VALUE
“I think Sam Patterson probably Subs them at some point um but Sam Patterson's like a minute loser like Sam Patterson striking defense is very bad um I've seen him heard I've seen him knocked out Sam Patterson has no takedown defense so yeah I think ashmost can go in here potentially knock out a very hittable Sam Patterson or you know take down Sam Patterson who has a pretty questionable takedown defense of course um Sam Patterson is a very good submission game and that's why I do like Sam Patterson to win the fight”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Sam Patterson
“giraffe neck Sam Patterson Sam Patterson Patterson to win the match up”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Sam Patterson
“giraffe neck Sam Patterson Sam Patterson Patterson to win the match up”
1M
138 MMA picks Sam Patterson
“I'm going to slightly lean the Patterson side”
138 MMA picks Sam Patterson
“I'm going to slightly lean the Patterson side”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Ashmouz8-1
L
Salkilld
Jun '25
W
Peek
Sep '24
L
Duncan
Jul '23
W
Patterson
Mar '23
Patterson14-2-1
L
Page
Mar '26
W
Waters
Sep '25
W
Barlow
Mar '25
W
Crosbie
Jul '24
W
Lainesse
Jan '24