Choose a fight to analyse
LE
KU
Edwards vs UsmanMain Card · Welterweight
JG
RF
Gaethje vs FizievMain Card · Lightweight
GN
BB
Nelson vs BarberenaMain Card · Welterweight
JM
CO
Maia vs O'NeillMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
MV
RD
Vettori vs DolidzeMain Card · Middleweight
JS
MA
Shore vs AmirkhaniPreliminary Card · Featherweight
CD
OM
Duncan vs MoralesPreliminary Card · Lightweight
YA
SP
Ashmouz vs PattersonPreliminary Card · Lightweight
MM
JF
Mokaev vs FilhoPreliminary Card · Flyweight
LM
GS
Murphy vs SantosEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight
CD
DT
Duncan vs TodorovićEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
JH
MG
Hadley vs GordonEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
JW
LC
Wood vs CarolinaEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
JH
ĽK
Herbert vs KleinEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight
VH
JM
Hardy vs MillerEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
KU
Edwards vs UsmanMain Card · Welterweight
JG
RF
Gaethje vs FizievMain Card · Lightweight
GN
BB
Nelson vs BarberenaMain Card · Welterweight
JM
CO
Maia vs O'NeillMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
MV
RD
Vettori vs DolidzeMain Card · Middleweight
JS
MA
Shore vs AmirkhaniPreliminary Card · Featherweight
CD
OM
Duncan vs MoralesPreliminary Card · Lightweight
YA
SP
Ashmouz vs PattersonPreliminary Card · Lightweight
MM
JF
Mokaev vs FilhoPreliminary Card · Flyweight
LM
GS
Murphy vs SantosEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight
CD
DT
Duncan vs TodorovićEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight
JH
MG
Hadley vs GordonEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
JW
LC
Wood vs CarolinaEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
JH
ĽK
Herbert vs KleinEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight
VH
JM
Hardy vs MillerEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Duncan v Morales
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Duncan 15-2
VS
11-4 Morales
5'10"
height
5'11"
156 lb
weight
155 lb
71"
reach
73"
33
age
40
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.7
strikes landed / min
3.4
46%
striking accuracy
40%
4.0
strikes absorbed / min
3.2
48%
striking defence
58%
3.5
takedowns / 15 min
0.5
37%
takedown accuracy
100%
33%
takedown defence
63%
0.3
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
RU
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Chris Duncan
“I'm leaning towards Chris Duncan right now ... minus 105 to pick him across the board um and I kind of agree with that”
$1.87
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Chris Duncan
“I'm leaning towards Chris Duncan right now ... minus 105 to pick him across the board um and I kind of agree with that”
$1.87
WP
We Want Picks picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“Chris Duncan Leroy Duncan should Witness probably wins inside the distance”
We Want Picks picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“Chris Duncan Leroy Duncan should Witness probably wins inside the distance”
SD
Santino DeFranco picks Omar Morales
“if gun in my head I think I choose Morales if his chin can hold up a little bit um just because I think um Christian Leroy Duncan is just so slow but then again after you know in in round three I would not be surprised to see Christian Leroy Duncan just just chin him out so on a technical level I think it's slightly Omar Morales on a young level I think it's um Christian Leroy Duncan but Christian Leroy Duncan doesn't have a great chin either so I you know it's it's I think if somebody's getting knocked out I think it's probably going to be uh Morales but I wouldn't be surprised to see just um you know Morales win a decision because he's just a little bit busier a little bit faster does a little bit more so I barely barely barely barely barely lean Morales”
Santino DeFranco picks Omar Morales
“if gun in my head I think I choose Morales if his chin can hold up a little bit um just because I think um Christian Leroy Duncan is just so slow but then again after you know in in round three I would not be surprised to see Christian Leroy Duncan just just chin him out so on a technical level I think it's slightly Omar Morales on a young level I think it's um Christian Leroy Duncan but Christian Leroy Duncan doesn't have a great chin either so I you know it's it's I think if somebody's getting knocked out I think it's probably going to be uh Morales but I wouldn't be surprised to see just um you know Morales win a decision because he's just a little bit busier a little bit faster does a little bit more so I barely barely barely barely barely lean Morales”
PR
Premium-Picks picks Omar Morales VALUE
“I'm going to take Omar Morales to win probably a decision then like I said the safest pick is over 1.5 rounds I'm not betting on the newcomer my pick is gonna be Omar Morales”
Premium-Picks picks Omar Morales VALUE
“I'm going to take Omar Morales to win probably a decision then like I said the safest pick is over 1.5 rounds I'm not betting on the newcomer my pick is gonna be Omar Morales”
KU
Kunath picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“give me Chris Duncan yeah that one and probably the other one one this week”
Kunath picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“give me Chris Duncan yeah that one and probably the other one one this week”
BM
Bedtime MMA picks Chris Duncan
“I'm gonna lean Chris Duncan to win this by decision”
Bedtime MMA picks Chris Duncan
“I'm gonna lean Chris Duncan to win this by decision”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Omar Morales
“I'm gonna decide with Omar Morales Morales to win this match up”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Omar Morales
“I'm gonna decide with Omar Morales Morales to win this match up”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Chris Duncan
“I'm gonna side with Chris Duncantian Chris Duncantian Leroy Duncan Duncan though I'll take the newcomer”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Chris Duncan
“I'm gonna side with Chris Duncantian Chris Duncantian Leroy Duncan Duncan though I'll take the newcomer”
HB
Half The Battle picks Omar Morales VALUE
“I'll pick him with a slight lean on Omar Morales”
Half The Battle picks Omar Morales VALUE
“I'll pick him with a slight lean on Omar Morales”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“I like Joe Herbert as a dog I'm picking him to win”
MMA EXPERTS picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“I like Joe Herbert as a dog I'm picking him to win”
1M
138 MMA picks Chris Duncan
“for me I'm Gonna Leave Chris Duncan here I actually like him in this matchup because I do think he's going to turn this fight into a brawl”
138 MMA picks Chris Duncan
“for me I'm Gonna Leave Chris Duncan here I actually like him in this matchup because I do think he's going to turn this fight into a brawl”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Omar Morales
“I'm picking the Omar Morales Omar Morales Morales on the side here in this fight”
MMA EXPERTS picks Omar Morales
“I'm picking the Omar Morales Omar Morales Morales on the side here in this fight”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Duncan15-2
L
Moicano
Apr '26
W
McKinney
Dec '25
W
Rębecki
Aug '25
W
Vucenic
Mar '25
W
Oki
Sep '24
Morales11-4
L
Duncan
Mar '23
L
Medić
May '22
L
Pearce
Sep '21
W
Young
Mar '21
L
Chikadze
Oct '20