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UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
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CO JG Oliveira vs GaethjeMain Card · Lightweight CE RN Esparza vs NamajunasMain Card · Women'S Strawweight MC TF Chandler vs FergusonMain Card · Lightweight OP MR Preux vs RuaMain Card · Light Heavyweight RB KW Brown vs WilliamsMain Card · Welterweight FT DR Trinaldo vs RobertsPreliminary Card · Welterweight MC ND Chiasson vs DumontPreliminary Card · Catchweight BR MS Royval vs SchnellPreliminary Card · Flyweight BI ML Ivanov vs LimaPreliminary Card · Heavyweight AF CV Fialho vs VanCampEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight TC MG Cortez vs GattoEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight CV KR Vergara vs RodriguesEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight LG AC Godinez vs CarnelossiEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight JN FG Newson vs GarciaEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Esparza v Namajunas Women'S Strawweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus10 picks · conf 30/99
Esparza 5
5 Namajunas
HACWC pick Esparza
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Esparza 20-8 VS 15-7 Namajunas
5'1" height 5'5"
115 lb weight 126 lb
63" reach 65"
38 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.2 strikes landed / min 3.7
39% striking accuracy 42%
2.9 strikes absorbed / min 3.5
54% striking defence 63%
3.3 takedowns / 15 min 1.5
36% takedown accuracy 50%
47% takedown defence 61%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 0.4
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
KU Kunath picks Rose Namajunas VALUE “i think that Rose Namajunas is probably going to win i think she wins three out of two rounds”
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Rose Namajunas VALUE “I'm gonna go with Rose Namajunas”
HB Half The Battle picks Rose Namajunas “i will side with the champ”
HB Half The Battle picks Carla Esparza VALUE “i'll be backing her out the money line though just because i think um you know basically just the wrestling you give me this this odds” $2.80
CO Covers picks Carla Esparza VALUE “i think she is able to grind out the victory in this one i really like her odds here” $2.65
CM Cyclone MMA picks Carla Esparza VALUE “i think NOT_IN_ROSTER_10 is going to get it done”
WP We Want Picks picks Rose Namajunas “i am going with rose here because i i carla only has one way to win and rose has several”
AM Artem MMA picks Carla Esparza VALUE “rose number units is my pick” $1.53
AM Artem MMA picks Rose Namajunas VALUE “let's go Rose Namajunas is my pick” $1.53
KU Kunath picks Rose Namajunas “the pick is rose nominess by decision”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Rose Namajunas VALUE “i'm picking Rose Namajunas to win”
AM Artem MMA picks Rose Namajunas “i'm picking her to defend royce number unis”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Esparza20-8
L Pennington Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Weili Submission · R2 Nov '22
W Namajunas Decision · R5 May '22
W Xiaonan KO/TKO · R2 May '21
W Rodriguez Decision · R3 Jul '20
Namajunas15-7
L Silva Decision · R3 Jan '26
W Maverick Decision · R3 Jun '25
L Blanchfield Decision · R5 Nov '24
W Cortez Decision · R5 Jul '24
W Ribas Decision · R5 Mar '24