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UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
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CO JG Oliveira vs GaethjeMain Card · Lightweight CE RN Esparza vs NamajunasMain Card · Women'S Strawweight MC TF Chandler vs FergusonMain Card · Lightweight OP MR Preux vs RuaMain Card · Light Heavyweight RB KW Brown vs WilliamsMain Card · Welterweight FT DR Trinaldo vs RobertsPreliminary Card · Welterweight MC ND Chiasson vs DumontPreliminary Card · Catchweight BR MS Royval vs SchnellPreliminary Card · Flyweight BI ML Ivanov vs LimaPreliminary Card · Heavyweight AF CV Fialho vs VanCampEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight TC MG Cortez vs GattoEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight CV KR Vergara vs RodriguesEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight LG AC Godinez vs CarnelossiEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight JN FG Newson vs GarciaEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Trinaldo v Roberts Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus8 picks · conf 24/99
Trinaldo 5
3 Roberts
STKWW pick Trinaldo
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Trinaldo 28-9 VS 18-8 Roberts
5'9" height —
170 lb weight —
70" reach —
47 age 38
Southpaw stance Southpaw
3.1 strikes landed / min 3.2
45% striking accuracy 39%
2.7 strikes absorbed / min 3.7
60% striking defence 50%
1.0 takedowns / 15 min 0.2
42% takedown accuracy 9%
60% takedown defence 57%
0.5 submissions / 15 min 0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Danny Roberts “i think he gets the win i don't think it's an easy fight by any means i feel like he gets it done by a decision more activity” $2.00
WP We Want Picks picks Francisco Trinaldo VALUE “i don't think Danny Roberts is going to get this done i like Francisco Trinaldo”
KU Kunath picks Francisco Trinaldo VALUE “Francisco Trinaldo at plus 200 to win by decision” $3.00
WP We Want Picks picks Francisco Trinaldo VALUE “so Francisco Trinaldo's the pick” $83.00
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Danny Roberts VALUE “i think Danny Roberts should be good to go and win this fight he's a fair amount quicker than the older trinaldo at this point i really feel like the kickboxing should be on display” $1.91
SD Santino DeFranco picks Danny Roberts VALUE “i like roberts here”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Francisco Trinaldo VALUE “i like fiallo here”
AM Artem MMA picks Danny Roberts VALUE “i'm going with Danny Roberts” $1.87
KU Kunath picks Francisco Trinaldo “Francisco Trinaldo by decision is the pick”
TF The ICE Files picks Francisco Trinaldo “i'm gonna have to go with Francisco Trinaldo on this one”
TG THE MMA GURU picks Danny Roberts VALUE “i'm gonna go with Danny Roberts getting this one done in a very close contest 29-28”
AM Artem MMA picks Danny Roberts VALUE “i'm probably going to be siding with danny roberts here as the underdog”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Trinaldo28-9
L Brown Decision · R3 Oct '22
W Roberts Decision · R3 May '22
W Grant Decision · R3 Oct '21
L Salikhov Decision · R3 Jun '21
W Herbert KO/TKO · R3 Jul '20
Roberts18-8
L Parsons KO/TKO · R2 Jul '23
L Maddalena KO/TKO · R1 Nov '22
L Trinaldo Decision · R3 May '22
W Emeev Decision · R3 Oct '21
W Imadaev KO/TKO · R2 Nov '19