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UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
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CO JG Oliveira vs GaethjeMain Card · Lightweight CE RN Esparza vs NamajunasMain Card · Women'S Strawweight MC TF Chandler vs FergusonMain Card · Lightweight OP MR Preux vs RuaMain Card · Light Heavyweight RB KW Brown vs WilliamsMain Card · Welterweight FT DR Trinaldo vs RobertsPreliminary Card · Welterweight MC ND Chiasson vs DumontPreliminary Card · Catchweight BR MS Royval vs SchnellPreliminary Card · Flyweight BI ML Ivanov vs LimaPreliminary Card · Heavyweight AF CV Fialho vs VanCampEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight TC MG Cortez vs GattoEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight CV KR Vergara vs RodriguesEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight LG AC Godinez vs CarnelossiEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight JN FG Newson vs GarciaEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Cortez v Gatto Women'S Flyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus6 picks · conf 18/99
Cortez 4
2 Gatto
MADW pick Cortez
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Cortez 11-2 VS 9-2-2 Gatto
5'5" height 5'5"
125 lb weight 125 lb
65" reach 69"
32 age 30
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.7 strikes landed / min 3.8
47% striking accuracy 49%
3.0 strikes absorbed / min 2.8
57% striking defence 54%
2.1 takedowns / 15 min 1.5
45% takedown accuracy 28%
62% takedown defence 63%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 0.5
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Melissa Gatto VALUE “i'm going Melissa Gatto to win i see her getting it done probably decision but as a fan i'd love to see submission” $2.30
WP We Want Picks picks Tracy Cortez “i do think Tracy Cortez can just get takedown after takedown and avoid the submission she's got very good submission defense”
KU Kunath picks Melissa Gatto VALUE “i think Melissa Gatto is the more dangerous fighter in this matchup”
WP We Want Picks picks Melissa Gatto VALUE “melissa got a lock of the week” $2.20
WP We Want Picks picks Tracy Cortez “i think Tracy Cortez is the pick because i think she will get the takedowns and can hang out and avoid getting submitted”
WP We Want Picks picks Melissa Gatto “i'm gonna pick Melissa Gatto because she is the more dangerous fighter in this matchup”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Tracy Cortez VALUE “i'm going melissa gato for the win” $2.44
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Melissa Gatto VALUE “i'm gonna take Melissa Gatto here in this fight” $2.45
AM Artem MMA picks Melissa Gatto VALUE “i will be picking Melissa Gatto to win this one”
KU Kunath picks Tracy Cortez “the pick for me for this fight is Tracy Cortez by decision”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Tracy Cortez VALUE “i like Tracy Cortez here”
AM Artem MMA picks Tracy Cortez VALUE “i will be going with Tracy Cortez uh to win this one here”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Cortez11-2
L Blanchfield Submission · R2 Nov '25
W Araújo Decision · R3 Jun '25
L Namajunas Decision · R5 Jul '24
W Jasudavicius Decision · R3 Sep '23
W Gatto Decision · R3 May '22
Gatto9-2-2
L Barbosa Decision · R3 Apr '26
W Vidal KO/TKO · R3 May '24
L Lipski Decision · R3 Jul '23
L Cortez Decision · R3 May '22
W Eubanks KO/TKO · R3 Dec '21