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UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
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CO JG Oliveira vs GaethjeMain Card · Lightweight CE RN Esparza vs NamajunasMain Card · Women'S Strawweight MC TF Chandler vs FergusonMain Card · Lightweight OP MR Preux vs RuaMain Card · Light Heavyweight RB KW Brown vs WilliamsMain Card · Welterweight FT DR Trinaldo vs RobertsPreliminary Card · Welterweight MC ND Chiasson vs DumontPreliminary Card · Catchweight BR MS Royval vs SchnellPreliminary Card · Flyweight BI ML Ivanov vs LimaPreliminary Card · Heavyweight AF CV Fialho vs VanCampEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight TC MG Cortez vs GattoEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight CV KR Vergara vs RodriguesEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight LG AC Godinez vs CarnelossiEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight JN FG Newson vs GarciaEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Newson v Garcia Bantamweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus7 picks · conf 21/99
Newson 4
3 Garcia
HMKP pick Newson
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Newson 10-5 VS 10-5 Garcia
5'5" height 5'7"
138 lb weight 146 lb
67" reach 67"
37 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.6 strikes landed / min 2.0
32% striking accuracy 34%
2.6 strikes absorbed / min 3.8
64% striking defence 48%
0.6 takedowns / 15 min 0.3
16% takedown accuracy 50%
43% takedown defence 50%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 0.6
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Journey Newson VALUE “i'm going to journey Journey Newson side as an underdog but not like a supreme you know lock of the night style call here but i do think journey gets to win” $2.22
WP We Want Picks picks Fernie Garcia “slight lean towards ferny here i think fernie wins this fight”
KU Kunath picks Journey Newson VALUE “i really like journey news in here i think he's got the better boxing”
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Journey Newson VALUE “I got Journey Newson”
HB Half The Battle picks Journey Newson “i favor chandler to win” $1.24
WP We Want Picks picks Journey Newson VALUE “if this runs into a brawl if this gets nasty this is definitely a journey fight this is going to be tailor made for him”
WP We Want Picks picks Fernie Garcia “Fernie Garcia is my pick” $1.65
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Journey Newson VALUE “i feel like we're gonna see newsome win a hard-fought decision” $2.35
SD Santino DeFranco picks Fernie Garcia VALUE “i think journey could could clip fernie coming in” $2.30
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Fernie Garcia VALUE “i will pick Fernie Garcia to win the fight” $1.65
KU Kunath picks Journey Newson “the pick for me for this fight is Journey Newson by decision”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Newson10-5
L McGhee Submission · R2 Apr '23
L Morozov Decision · R3 Dec '22
W Garcia Decision · R3 May '22
L Costa KO/TKO · R1 Sep '20
L Ramos Decision · R3 Jun '19
Garcia10-5
L Amil KO/TKO · R2 Feb '24
L Nakamura Decision · R3 Aug '23
L Hiestand Decision · R3 Nov '22
L Newson Decision · R3 May '22